Connector Economies, Multipolar Winners
Austin@nfteague
+3.0%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe global trade is splitting into blocs, and the real winners won't be China itself but the neutral connectors sitting between the blocs. So this basket owns broad country exposure across India, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Gulf, layered with the toll collectors in each, banks, airports, cement, payment rails that earn a cut as trade and capital reroute through them. It's spread across six countries rather than concentrated in one, keeps a cash cushion, and is meant to play out over years, not months.
What it owns
- Broad funds tracking economies positioned to benefit as trade reroutes away from the US-China split, with access to both blocs and growing investment flows. · iShares MSCI India ETFIt tracks a broad index of Indian companies positioned to benefit as capital and manufacturing shift toward an economy that trades with both blocs., iShares MSCI Mexico ETFIt tracks Mexican companies gaining from nearshoring as supply chains move factories and investment across the border from China., iShares MSCI Brazil ETFIt tracks Brazilian companies selling commodities and goods to both blocs without aligning with either, collecting revenue from neutral trade., iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETFIt tracks Saudi companies positioned to sell oil and capital to both blocs, playing a neutral intermediary role in a multipolar trade system., iShares MSCI Indonesia ETFIt tracks Indonesian companies that benefit from supplying commodities and nickel to both blocs while serving a growing domestic consumer base., VanEck Vietnam ETFIt tracks Vietnamese companies positioned to capture manufacturing that leaves China, maintaining access to buyers and suppliers across both trading blocs.38%
- Banks and commerce platforms collecting fees as Latin American economies trade with both sides and move money into formal digital systems. · Nu HoldingsIt provides digital banking and payments for tens of millions of Latin Americans entering the formal financial system, capturing fees as the region's money goes digital., MercadoLibreIt operates Latin America's largest online commerce and payments platform, collecting fees on every transaction as the region's digital economy grows., Itau UnibancoIt collects fees on Brazilian loans and deposits as the economy grows from trading with both blocs and attracting investment.17%
- Banks and travel platforms collecting fees on India's credit growth, household spending, and mobility as the country attracts rerouted capital and factories. · ICICI BankIt collects fees on Indian corporate and consumer lending and deposits as factories, jobs, and incomes grow from rerouted capital and trade., HDFC BankIt collects fees on Indian household and business banking, growing as savings, lending, and investment compound with the country's economic expansion., MakeMyTripIt captures fees on Indian travel bookings, benefiting as rising incomes and mobility flow from the country's economic growth.14%
- Airports and construction companies that handle the physical infrastructure factories need when supply chains shift from China to Mexico. · Grupo Aeroportuario del PacificoIt operates airports in Mexico's manufacturing corridor, collecting fees on passenger and cargo traffic as nearshoring factories grow., Grupo Aeroportuario del SuresteIt operates airports in southeast Mexico, collecting fees on travel and cargo as nearshoring drives traffic growth through the region., CemexIt supplies cement for factories, warehouses, and infrastructure that nearshoring requires as supply chains move to Mexico.13%
- Commerce and payments platforms capturing fees as manufacturing and consumer spending flow into Vietnam and Indonesia. · Sea LimitedIt runs e-commerce and payments platforms across Southeast Asia, clipping fees on consumer spending and digital transactions as the region catches rerouted manufacturing., Grab HoldingsIt operates payments, rides, and deliveries across Southeast Asia, capturing fees as the region's economy and consumer spending grow with rerouted manufacturing.9%
- Cash8%