Consumer Data Buyout Targets
Charlie@cigoldstein1
The idea
I believe that as AI makes software easy to copy, owning raw consumer data becomes the scarce thing worth buying, and AI labs, retailers and consultancies will pay up for it. This basket only holds companies that collect their own data first-hand, spread across checkout registers, panels, buy-now-pay-later, receipts and apps that see real consumer behavior, plus retailers with their own data arms for steadiness. It is spread across many small and mid-sized names with 10% in cash, since a buyout thesis tends to pay off one company at a time rather than all at once.
What it owns
- Register and payment systems record every item sold in stores and restaurants, creating first-hand data on consumer purchases. · Block, Inc.Its Square registers and Cash App create a detailed record of spending at millions of small merchants that it controls directly., Toast, Inc.Its registers sit inside restaurants and record every order, giving it first-hand data on dining purchases and consumer behavior., PAR Technology CorporationIt runs ordering and loyalty systems for restaurant chains, giving it order-level data across entire chain networks., Shift4 Payments, Inc.It processes payments at venues like stadiums, hotels and restaurants, capturing spending data from locations most competitors cannot reach., Lightspeed Commerce Inc.Its registers sit in independent shops and restaurants, giving it direct ownership of sales data from thousands of merchants., NCR Voyix CorporationIts registers run in grocery stores and restaurants, recording transaction data that mirrors the store sales data sold by specialized firms.26%
- These apps collect their own data on what people order, where they go and what they plan to buy, rather than licensing it from others. · Maplebear Inc. (Instacart)It sees every item in grocery baskets across multiple retailers through its own app and monetizes that visibility through advertising., Zeta Global Holdings Corp.It built a large consumer identity database from its own sources and sells marketing insights on top of that owned data., Pinterest, Inc.Its users save items they plan to buy, giving it purchase intent data that reflects future consumer behavior., Life360, Inc.It sees where families go daily through its own app, collecting location data that is difficult for competitors to replicate at scale., GoodRx Holdings, Inc.It sees which prescriptions people fill and what they pay, collecting consumer health spending data directly from users.23%
- Panel companies maintain long-running records of household purchases and viewing habits, providing foundational consumer behavior data. · NIQ Global Intelligence plcIt collects panel and store sales data at scale and depends on clients continuing to pay for insights even as AI tools become more common., Similarweb Ltd.It measures web and app traffic from its own data sources, collecting raw user behavior data independent of other platforms., comScore, Inc.It runs its own television and web panels to measure audience behavior, collecting consumer data independent of other sources.16%
- These lenders see shoppers' carts at checkout and own that transaction data directly across thousands of merchants. · Klarna Group plcIt sees exactly what shoppers purchase at checkout through its app and in-store, capturing transaction data it owns outright., Affirm Holdings, Inc.It sees the item-by-item purchase trail on bigger purchases at its merchants, capturing detailed transaction data it owns directly.9%
- Receipt and cash-back apps capture item-level purchase data across every store, giving them a direct view of what people buy. · Ibotta, Inc.It captures item-level receipts and offer redemptions directly from shoppers, making it a primary source of granular purchase data.8%
- Large retailers own the most comprehensive first-party shopper data in the US and monetize it by selling insights to brands. · The Kroger Co.It owns loyalty card data from millions of shoppers and sells that consumer insight and advertising to brands seeking their customers., Walmart Inc.It owns shopper data across its massive customer base and sells insights and advertising to brands seeking those customers.8%
- Cash10%