Mag 7 Doghouse Rotation
David Bromberg 馃彯@davidb1230
+0.5%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe every Mag 7 name eventually gets written off over some fixable narrative, the pessimism gets overdone, then sentiment flips and it surges. So I concentrate in whoever is in the doghouse right now, Microsoft and Amazon today, while keeping a smaller bench in Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple and Meta so gains get banked rather than reset. I skip Tesla since its dips never actually get cheap. Cash sits on the side for the next name that falls out of favor, and I re-tilt as sentiment rotates.
What it owns
- The currently hated Mag Seven companies where pessimism is priced in but the business hasn't broken, which is where the bounce comes from. 路 MicrosoftIt faces near-term skepticism on narrative grounds while its core businesses in cloud and AI continue to perform, setting up for a rerating when sentiment shifts., AmazonCurrently out of favor despite no material deterioration in AWS or retail margins, positioning it for recovery when market sentiment normalizes.43%
- Starter positions in the loved Mag Seven companies so the take banks their gains and can add fast when one of them falls out of favor. 路 NvidiaIt sits as a small starter position in the crowd favorite, keeping the take exposed to Mag Seven strength while waiting for the moment it might fall into disfavor and become an opportunistic add., AlphabetAlready cycled from doghouse to sentiment leader, so gains are banked here at modest size until the market turns again., AppleMaintained on the bench as a rotation candidate, positioned to increase if the market turns on it over a fixable issue rather than entering at enthusiasm., Meta PlatformsPreviously proved the take by cycling from hated to loved on VR spending, now held small on the bench for potential re-scaling if sentiment reverses.42%
- Cash15%