Satellite Buildout, Shovels First
Austin@nfteague
−10.3%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe satellite constellations keep scaling for the next decade, and the steadiest way to profit is owning the picks and shovels rather than betting on one winner. This basket spans satellite builders and operators, the antennas and RF chips that move signals, space-grade components, and ground terminals, with defense primes as ballast since they build many satellites under long contracts. I hold a modest cash reserve to add on dips, and I'd rethink this if the buildout stalls or shifts away from these layers entirely.
What it owns
- The companies making and flying satellites directly bet on constellations scaling over the decade. · Rocket LabIt builds whole satellites and launches them, sitting directly in the hardware layer as the buildout continues., Iridium CommunicationsIt already runs a working global constellation with paying customers, the proven operator earning from ongoing satellite connectivity demand., AST SpaceMobileIt is building satellites that connect straight to ordinary phones, creating a new industry as its constellation launches on schedule., Planet LabsIt builds and operates a fleet of imaging satellites and sells the data, earning from growing demand for satellite imagery., GlobalstarIt operates the constellation behind Apple's satellite features on iPhones, an operator with an anchor customer funding its buildout.24%
- The radio and optical hardware that moves data between space and Earth gets ordered regardless of which constellation wins. · MACOM Technology SolutionsIt supplies space-grade radio chips that go into satellites and the ground equipment that communicates with them, essential regardless of which constellation scales., Analog DevicesIt makes the signal chips inside antennas, terminals, and satellite electronics, providing steady ballast through the decade-long buildout., SWKS, Keysight TechnologiesIt sells the test equipment that satellite and antenna makers need before anything flies, paid for during the buildout phase., CoherentIt makes laser links that let satellites talk to each other, a piece of plumbing that becomes standard as constellations scale.23%
- Space-grade parts and electronics go into nearly every satellite built, so more launches means more orders across the supply chain. · HEICOIt supplies aerospace parts across many programs, giving the satellite components layer a steady compounder as space production volumes grow., Mercury SystemsIt builds the processing electronics that go inside satellites and defense space systems, a core piece of space-grade components., RedwireIt supplies satellite structures, solar arrays, and other parts to many builders, winning from constellation volume without betting on one operator., Frequency ElectronicsIt makes the space-qualified timing parts that satellites need to keep signals in sync, an essential piece of the supply chain.17%
- Every satellite needs ground stations and terminals to operate, and these companies sell that infrastructure to all constellations. · Kratos Defense & Security SolutionsIt builds the ground systems that command satellites and move their data, the infrastructure every constellation needs to operate., ViasatIt sells ground equipment and satellite broadband, earning from the buildout on both ends of the data link., Gilat Satellite NetworksIt makes the terminals and ground equipment that connect users to satellites, a pick-and-shovel play as constellation orders rise.16%
- Large contractors with long government satellite contracts provide steady weight that does not swing with startup news. · L3Harris TechnologiesIt builds satellite payloads and ground systems under long government contracts that do not depend on any commercial constellation winning., Northrop GrummanIt builds satellites for the government under multi-year contracts, steady ballast through the decade as defense budgets fund those programs., Lockheed MartinIt is one of the largest government satellite builders, anchoring the defense ballast with long contracts independent of commercial news.13%
- Cash8%