Stay Healthy Spending Wave
Ryan Nguyen@nguyen
+4.6%
since Oct 10
The idea
I believe the shift from treating sickness to paying out of pocket to prevent it is accelerating, with GLP-1 drugs as the fastest-moving piece over the next year or two. This basket leads with the drug makers, then builds out around them: fitness and recovery, metabolic and heart monitoring, early testing, and protein and nutrition brands that benefit as more people start and stay on these treatments. I skipped single-name telehealth exposure by choice and kept a chunk in cash to add if prices pull back.
What it owns
- These drugs are pulling the most new people into paying to stay healthy, with Medicare coverage and new pills expanding that group. · Eli Lilly and CompanyIts obesity pill and shots are how most new patients start, including seniors on Medicare's low copay, anchoring this take., Novo Nordisk A/SIt makes Wegovy, one of the two dominant obesity drugs now covered by Medicare, positioning it to capture a large share of the expanding patient population seeking treatment., Amgen Inc.It is here for its next-wave obesity drug, a shot meant to be taken less often than today's weekly ones., Viking Therapeutics, Inc.It is the small, risky bet on obesity drugs, with pill candidates in trials meant to help patients keep weight off.26%
- GLP-1 patients lose muscle and the wider culture is moving toward lifting, sleep and recovery, so gyms and wearables pick up that spending. · Planet Fitness, Inc.It is the cheap, everywhere gym, the easiest way for regular people to start strength training., Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.It is the high-end gym with strength, recovery and health services that people pay for to stay healthy longer., Garmin Ltd.Its watches track workouts, sleep and recovery, the everyday tools of people trying to stay healthy longer.21%
- People who start caring about blood sugar and heart health buy sensors and monitors to track it. · DexCom, Inc.Its glucose sensors let people see how food moves their blood sugar and now sell over the counter to healthy people without diabetes., Abbott LaboratoriesIts glucose and health sensors put it right in the stay-healthy tracking trend for people who want to monitor their metabolic health., iRhythm Technologies, Inc.Its wearable heart patch catches rhythm problems early, which is the heart side of avoiding getting sick.18%
- Avoiding getting sick starts with blood work and screening that catch problems early. · Quest Diagnostics IncorporatedIt runs a huge lab network and lets people order their own blood tests without a doctor visit, exactly the check-before-you-get-sick spending this take is about., Labcorp Holdings Inc.It is the other giant lab, so more people checking their blood work and metabolic health flows to it as testing volumes grow., Guardant Health, Inc.It sells a blood test that screens for colon cancer, catching it before people feel sick and before they need treatment.15%
- People on GLP-1s eat less and need more protein to keep muscle, which helps protein shake and bar makers. · BellRing Brands, Inc.It makes Premier Protein shakes, which people on GLP-1 drugs lean on to hold onto muscle while they lose weight., The Simply Good Foods CompanyIt makes Quest protein bars, another way GLP-1 patients and gym-goers get more protein.8%
- Cash12%