Post-World Cup Snap-Back
Lincoln@lincoln
−2.2%
since Sep 29
The idea
I think the World Cup was soccer's peak in the US, not the start of something bigger, so I'm betting attention and ad dollars snap back to the NFL, NBA, and college football once the tournament fades. The portfolio leans into media companies holding those big league rights and the US betting layer, adds the fight game plus the Knicks and Rangers as pure attention plays, and keeps a small overseas position for the residual soccer interest that does stick. I'm holding cash on the side to add into the fade if it plays out over the next year or two.
What it owns
- If soccer's US audience shrinks, advertising revenue and viewership return to the companies holding rights to the NFL, NBA, and college football. · Fox CorporationIt holds the broadcast rights to NFL and college football, the sports with the deepest American viewership and ad spending relative to soccer., Walt DisneyESPN holds the largest portfolio of NFL and NBA rights, so if US soccer interest shrinks, advertising dollars and viewer attention flow back to those big American leagues., NetflixIt built its sports presence through NFL games and WWE rather than soccer, so subscriber and advertising growth depends on live American sports remaining central., ComcastIt secured NBA rights for NBC and Peacock based on the bet that big US leagues, not soccer, keep American audiences engaged., SKYD40%
- These teams, leagues, and games capture the audience attention that soccer loses over the next two years. · TKO GroupUFC and WWE compete directly for American viewer attention and media rights dollars that soccer would otherwise claim., Madison Square Garden SportsThe Knicks and Rangers hold value when NBA and NHL remain New York's dominant sports, so franchise valuations climb if soccer never captures that market., Take-Two InteractiveIts basketball simulation is the central video game for US basketball fans, so the take wins if gaming attention stays focused on basketball rather than shifting toward soccer titles.25%
- American sportsbooks earn most from football and basketball wagering, where the betting handle concentrates during their seasons. · DraftKingsIts betting volume comes overwhelmingly from NFL, NBA, and college football, so US-league wagering keeps cycling through its platform as long as soccer betting remains marginal., Genius SportsIt owns the official NFL data rights that feed every US sportsbook, so the value of that infrastructure grows as football betting volume stays strong., Rush Street InteractiveThis US-focused sportsbook operator's growth tracks American bettors wagering on American leagues rather than needing a soccer betting boom.22%
- Any US soccer interest that survives flows toward overseas leagues rather than Major League Soccer. · Manchester UnitedIt offers direct exposure to Premier League viewership and commercial growth in the US even as domestic soccer interest declines.3%
- Cash10%