Power Buildout Bottleneck
Sérgio Lopes@sergiolopes
−4.3%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe power is the real bottleneck behind AI, EVs, and reshoring, and the next few years bring the fastest grid buildout in decades. This basket owns all three layers: companies making power (turbines, reactors, solar, plants), moving it (grid equipment and installers with the longest backlogs), and storing it (battery builders closing the gap). A small slice sits in speculative next-gen reactor and storage bets, with cash held back to add on pullbacks. I'd rethink this if the buildout stalls or demand growth clearly cools.
What it owns
- Companies building and running generation assets get paid first when demand outruns supply. · GE VernovaShips more gas turbines than anyone else, with a backlog stretching years out as utilities and data centers order faster than it can build., VistraSells power at market prices, so a grid unable to keep up with demand shows directly in its margins., Constellation EnergyRuns the largest nuclear fleet in the country and is signing long-term deals to feed data centers directly at premium prices., Talen EnergyPipes power straight to data centers, the purest way to own the trend that compute is starving for electrons., First SolarSolar is the fastest generation that can actually be built, and it is the largest US maker of panels with booked orders., NextEra EnergyBuilds more renewable power than anyone else in the country, so a decade-fast buildout runs through its project pipeline., BWX TechnologiesMakes reactor components that everyone else's nuclear plans depend on, with real revenue today rather than theoretical designs.40%
- Transformers, switchgear and construction crews have the longest backlogs and least competition in the grid buildout. · Quanta ServicesEmploys the crews that physically string grid wires, and the buildout cannot accelerate without them., EatonEvery megawatt made moves through its switchgear, transformers and panels, with order books growing faster than it can ship., HubbellIt supplies the essential hardware that utilities install whenever they expand or upgrade the grid, so utility capital spending directly drives its order backlog., MasTecBuilds long-distance transmission lines that connect new power to where it is needed, essential as transmission spending rises., nVent ElectricMakes connection and protection gear that goes into every data center and substation being built.31%
- Batteries absorb solar and survive peak demand, so storage grows faster than generation itself. · TeslaMegapack is the largest grid battery business in the world, and growth depends on energy storage deployments accelerating., Fluence EnergyFocuses entirely on grid-scale batteries, so it is the clearest read on whether storage demand is real and growing., EnerSysSells industrial batteries that keep data centers and telecom gear running when the grid fails, steady backup power demand.13%
- Small positions on modular reactors and next-generation storage that pay off if the buildout runs hotter than expected. · OkloMicro-reactor bet with no revenue yet, but if the buildout runs hotter than expected, small reactors sited next to data centers become critical., NuScale PowerOnly small modular reactor design approved by US regulators, a head start if the grid gap forces new nuclear., Eos EnergyMakes zinc batteries that store power longer than lithium, the kind of technology that matters if storage demand outgrows lithium supply.6%
- Cash10%