Human Touch Meets AGI
Manit@manit
The idea
I believe AGI will reshape every industry eventually, but it's further off than the hype suggests, so I'm not betting on a near term breakthrough. About 40% of this basket owns human businesses that stay valuable either way: live events, sports, senior housing and hands on care, favoring those that control something scarce like venues or franchises. The other 60% owns AI infrastructure already generating real earnings today, chipmakers, cloud platforms and power.
What will be bought
- Every step toward AGI runs on these chips, so these companies earn money no matter which AI lab wins. · NVIDIAIt makes the chips most AI is trained and run on today, earning real money from AI spending rather than waiting for breakthroughs., Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingIt manufactures the most advanced chips for major AI chip designers, getting paid regardless of which one leads the market., BroadcomIt designs custom AI chips for major tech companies and makes the networking gear that connects them together.29%
- The clouds that rent out AI and the power that runs data centers get paid as AI spending grows. · AlphabetIt builds its own AI models and chips and rents them through Google Cloud while search continues to generate revenue., MicrosoftIt rents AI computing through Azure and embeds AI features into Office software that customers already pay for., VistraIt owns power plants that provide the massive amounts of steady electricity data centers need to operate continuously.28%
- An aging population needs nurses, rehab and senior housing, and trust in a human caregiver is hard to automate. · The Ensign GroupIt runs skilled nursing facilities where nurses and aides provide bedside care that relies on human trust and presence., WelltowerIt owns senior housing communities as the country ages and occupancy rates keep rising with limited new supply., Encompass HealthIt operates rehab hospitals where therapists help patients walk and recover after major medical events through hands-on treatment., HCA HealthcareIt runs hospitals full of doctors and nurses providing in-person care that people continue to pay for as they age., Addus HomeCareIt sends caregivers into people's homes for daily assistance, a deeply personal kind of care that requires human presence.19%
- Live events create shared physical experiences that artificial intelligence cannot replicate or replace, making them defensible against disruption. · Live Nation EntertainmentIt books concerts and tours, sitting where fans pay to be in the room with an artist for a shared experience., TKO Group HoldingsIt owns UFC and WWE, live fights and shows that fill arenas and create shared moments fans watch together in person., Royal Caribbean CruisesIt operates cruises as paid time away with real crews and real destinations, experiences people buy instead of material goods., Madison Square Garden SportsIt owns major-market sports franchises like the Knicks and Rangers, with only a limited number of teams in premium locations., Sphere EntertainmentIt operates the Sphere in Las Vegas, betting that people will pay a premium for shows they can only experience in person., Vail ResortsIt owns mountain resorts that can't be built elsewhere, offering skiing and outdoor experiences that require showing up on site.19%
- Cash5%