Memory Supercycle Through 2028
Venture@venture
−8.6%
since Oct 15
The idea
I believe AI training and inference will keep outrunning memory supply through 2027 and 2028, and that the market will eventually stop treating memory makers as pure boom-and-bust names. Micron sits at the core as the only US-based HBM maker, surrounded by other memory makers, a South Korea fund for Samsung exposure, hard drive makers storing AI data, and chipmakers that sit next to memory. I cap any single name and keep cash on hand to add when memory stocks sell off, which happens even in strong years.
What it owns
- Other major memory manufacturers benefit from the same AI-driven shortage, so the take does not depend on any single company's execution. · SK HynixIt is the largest HBM supplier globally and the most direct alternative to bet on AI memory staying in short supply as demand grows., SandiskIt manufactures flash memory that stores the data AI inference systems continuously read and write in data centers., iShares MSCI South Korea ETFIt provides exposure to Samsung and SK Hynix, the largest memory makers in South Korea, riding the same AI memory demand cycle.37%
- Micron is the leading US maker of HBM stacked memory that AI chips require to run, with multi-year customer contracts supporting revenue growth through the decade. · Micron TechnologyIt makes the HBM stacked memory that AI chips cannot run without, and long-term customer contracts lock in revenue as AI server buildouts accelerate.25%
- Hard drive makers face the same tight supply conditions as memory makers, as data centers need high-capacity storage for the massive datasets AI systems create. · Seagate TechnologyIt is the other major manufacturer of high-capacity drives for AI data centers, competing for orders as storage demand accelerates., Western DigitalIt sells the high-capacity hard drives that cloud providers use to store the enormous volumes of data AI systems generate and process.18%
- Controller and interface chips that manage and connect memory sell more units whenever memory demand rises in AI servers. · RambusIt makes the interface and power chips on memory modules, so it sells more whenever servers adopt newer and larger memory configurations., Silicon Motion TechnologyIt manufactures the controller chips that manage flash drives, capturing revenue as AI data storage demand drives SSD volumes higher.10%
- Cash10%