The Automation Scarcity Barbell
Andy
@aweissman
+0.7%
since Jul 14
The idea
I believe automation keeps eating anything that can be copied, and the wealth it creates flows toward whatever can't be, so I built a barbell instead of picking a side. Half the portfolio owns the automators and their bottlenecks: compute, software, and the physical suppliers behind them. The other half owns scarcity itself: live experiences, engineered luxury, and irreplaceable land and gold. I keep a cash buffer, avoid concentrating in any single name, and expect to hold this for years since it's a structural bet, not a trade.
What it owns
- The companies architecting the shift: AI compute, software that automates knowledge work, and robots that handle physical tasks. These are the core engines of labor displacement. · NVIDIA CorporationThe silicon foundation for every automation wave, AI models, robotics, autonomous systems, all run on its chips and software stack. It is the most direct exposure to labor displacement at scale., Microsoft CorporationCopilot and Azure convert white-collar work into software and charge recurring rent on the transition. It is the steadiest way to own knowledge-work automation and the AI-driven productivity shift., Intuitive SurgicalIt automates the physical world's highest-skill labor: surgery. An installed base of robots plus recurring instrument revenue creates a compounder where the system becomes more entrenched over time., ServiceNowProvides the platform enterprises use to automate internal workflows end-to-end, with AI agents making each license more valuable rather than eliminating the need for them.24%
- Concerts, fights, travel, and cruises cannot be automated or copied. Physical presence and authentic spectacle become scarcer and more valuable as digital substitutes proliferate. · Live Nation EntertainmentControls the venues, promotion, and ticketing for live entertainment, the one format automation makes more valuable, not less. Streaming cannot replicate being physically present at the show., TKO Group HoldingsUFC and WWE own pure human drama and irreplaceable live intellectual property whose media rights reprice upward as authentic spectacle grows scarcer in an AI-generated world., Booking HoldingsIt is the tollbooth on global travel, the largest category of un-automatable spending. It takes a cut of every trip as the experience economy grows and travel becomes a priority for concentrated wealth., Royal Caribbean GroupCruises sell bought memories: physically present, socially shared, impossible to digitize. Record bookings demonstrate the experience shift is already accelerating.20%
- Automation cannot scale without these choke points: the chips it runs on, the tools that make those chips, and the power systems that feed data centers. Whoever automates must pay these prices. · Taiwan SemiconductorFabricates nearly every advanced AI chip regardless of designer, winning whichever automation player dominates. It is the ultimate picks-and-shovels position in the compute buildout., ASML HoldingThe sole maker of EUV lithography machines needed to print advanced chips, holding a literal monopoly on the tool automation depends on. This bottleneck cannot be automated around., Vertiv HoldingsAI data centers run hot and dense, and its power and cooling infrastructure is the physical bottleneck underappreciated in the compute expansion., Eaton CorporationIt makes electrical equipment that sits between the grid and every new data center and factory, with a multi-year backlog supporting growth.17%
- Land, iconic real estate, and gold represent true scarcity: things no technology can manufacture. They ballast the portfolio and hedge against wobbles in the automation trade. · SPDR Gold SharesThe purest expression of manufactured scarcity: an asset no technology can create more of. It hedges the automation leg if the AI trade faces headwinds or volatility., Texas Pacific LandHolds nearly nine hundred thousand Texas acres with royalties on everything above and below, water, energy, data centers. Technology cannot manufacture additional land., VICI PropertiesOwns marquee Las Vegas Strip real estate on long inflation-linked leases, serving as the landlord of the experience economy and collecting rent on places people must physically visit.16%
- Luxury brands that restrict supply by design, creating pricing power that compounds as automation concentrates wealth. Heritage and brand equity cannot be replicated by algorithm. · Ferrari N.V.Deliberately manufactures scarcity by selling fewer cars than demand allows, strengthening pricing power as automation-generated wealth concentrates and waiting lists grow., Ralph LaurenA heritage brand successfully moving upmarket, where fifty years of brand equity is precisely the asset no algorithm can replicate. It captures aspirational buyers worldwide., Tapestry Inc.Coach serves as the entry point to status goods for the aspirational consumer, providing the widest funnel into the scarcity trade as automation lifts incomes across the global economy.15%
- Cash8%