The Divided States Trade
Jonny Mack
@nonlinear
−2.7%
since Sep 30
The idea
I think American polarization is structural and deepening, with no unifying leader or event coming to fix it. So this basket bets on the ways people actually respond: hardening their own households, physically sorting into states that match their politics, and paying for media that confirms their side. The bigger weights sit in the self-reliance and sorting trades, with gold as a hedge on distrust itself and a populist-politics sleeve for direct beneficiaries.
What it owns
- As households trust shared institutions less, spending on security, weapons, generators, and monitoring systems rises structurally instead of cycling with election fears. · Axon EnterpriseIt sells tasers, cameras, and software to police, and eroding trust in shared safety drives both public spending and contract growth., Generac HoldingsIt makes backup generators and home power systems for households that no longer assume the grid or government will reliably deliver., Smith & Wesson BrandsIt makes firearms for households viewing the other side as a threat, with demand staying elevated through cycles rather than fading between elections., ADT Inc.It provides home monitoring and security, with subscriber growth depending on households paying monthly because they distrust the world outside., Academy Sports and OutdoorsIt sells guns, ammunition, and outdoor gear mostly in red states, combining the self-reliance trade with the geographic political sorting., Sturm, Ruger & CompanyIt manufactures firearms for the sustained household arming driven by mutual distrust, not one-time election-cycle panic buying.30%
- Millions of Americans relocate to states matching their politics, sending construction, moving services, and banking activity to Sun Belt destinations year after year. · U-Haul Holding CompanyIt moves people from blue states to red ones, with one-way rental data directly reflecting the political sorting reshaping American geography., D.R. HortonIt builds affordable homes in Texas, Florida, and the Southeast, where the political sorting concentrates new residents and new construction., Lennar CorporationIt builds homes in migration destinations where political and cost factors draw new residents faster than the national average., Cullen/Frost BankersIt operates as a Texas bank, so every household and business moving into the state brings deposits and financial activity with it., Green Brick PartnersIt builds homes concentrated in Texas, the single largest destination of the political and economic sorting reshaping the country.26%
- Partisan media on both sides gains subscribers and ad revenue as polarization deepens, since each side pays for content confirming its worldview. · Rumble Inc.It hosts creators and viewers who feel pushed off mainstream platforms, growing as the right builds its separate media world., Fox CorporationIt operates the established media business of one side paying for content matching its politics, with an audience that hardens instead of moderating., Nexstar Media GroupIt owns local TV stations collecting political advertising money, with more funding and harsher races on both sides driving higher spend., The New York Times CompanyIt collects subscription revenue from the left paying for media matching its politics, with subscriber growth tied to deepening polarization.18%
- Gold holds its value when faith in currency, courts, or institutions erodes, making it a stabilizer on days the rest of the take falls. · SPDR Gold SharesIt holds value when faith in currency and institutions weakens, stabilizing the take on days broader markets falter.10%
- Companies winning government contracts and direct audience funding as populist politics gains power and voters distrust traditional institutions and mainstream platforms. · Palantir TechnologiesIt sells software to defense, immigration, and law enforcement agencies, growing as governments spend more on security and control instead of social cohesion., The GEO GroupIt operates detention and enforcement facilities, winning more contracts as populist government expands harder-edged immigration and criminal enforcement., Trump Media & Technology GroupIt channels populist momentum on the right into a business funded by direct loyalty rather than earnings, embodying the distrust in traditional institutions the take describes.8%
- Cash8%