Real-World Experience Renaissance
Greg Sarafian@greg
+2.2%
since Sep 30
The idea
My belief is that as AI floods our screens with unverifiable content and synthetic relationships, real, provably authentic experiences become the scarce good people will pay up for. So this basket owns the whole wave: live events and scarce IP like sports and concerts, the travel platforms that book the trips, restaurants worth lining up for, gyms and social spaces, parks and attractions, and the toll collectors that clip every real-world dollar spent. Steadier names carry the weight, a few punchier picks add upside, and I keep a small cash reserve to add on dips.
What it owns
- Live games and shows cannot be replicated by artificial intelligence, making the ownership of teams, leagues and tours one of the scarcest assets in a rapidly shifting media landscape. · Live Nation EntertainmentIt sells and tickets most of the concerts where crowds gather in one room with an artist, the purest unfakeable experience., TKO Group HoldingsUFC and WWE are live spectacle that can only be fully experienced in the arena or watched as it happens in real time., Liberty Media Formula OneA Formula One race weekend is a scarce real-world event that cities bid for and fans travel to, with attendance and media rights that keep climbing., Madison Square Garden SportsThere is exactly one Knicks and one Rangers, and a seat at the Garden cannot be generated by AI or replicated remotely., Sphere EntertainmentThe venue is built so the experience itself is the product, impossible to replicate on a screen, needing shows to keep selling out.26%
- Trips are the biggest-ticket real experiences, and these platforms and operators capture the spending wherever people choose to go. · Booking HoldingsIt clips a fee on a huge share of the rooms and flights that make trips happen across the world., Royal Caribbean GroupA cruise is a packaged real-world experience spanning multiple days, sold at higher prices as people prioritize trips over stuff., AirbnbIt books the stays and increasingly the experiences themselves, turning real-world activity into a bookable product., Hilton WorldwideIt collects fees on rooms without owning most of the buildings, giving steady large-cap exposure to growing travel demand and room rates.22%
- Restaurants are the everyday version of paying for a real shared experience, and the strongest brands keep taking share from delivery and home cooking. · Texas RoadhouseA busy Texas Roadhouse on a Friday night is exactly the kind of real, social experience people pay up for as dining out wins share., Darden RestaurantsIts Olive Garden and LongHorn carry the mass-market end of eating out together as Americans choose the table over delivery., Chipotle Mexican GrillPeople still line up in person for food they trust is real, with store traffic and new locations growing as eating out wins share of spending., Cava GroupIt is a young brand people line up for with significant store buildout runway ahead, swinging harder than mature dining peers as same-store traffic stays positive.16%
- Theme parks, mountains and resorts sell days physically lived through, with pricing power that grows when demand shifts toward the real. · Walt Disney CompanyIts parks are the family version of an unfakeable experience and now generate most of the company's profit., Vail ResortsThere are only so many mountains, and it owns access to a lot of them through the Epic Pass, a day of skiing being far from synthetic content., Six Flags EntertainmentIt is the affordable day-out version of the experience economy, within a drive for most of the country, with a higher-upside parks angle.12%
- Gyms and clubs are where people gather around other people, the direct answer to screen-life isolation. · Planet FitnessIt is the cheapest ticket to a gym where people show up and see other humans, with membership growth signaling shift from screens to real-world routine., Life Time GroupIt sells the club as a third place with workouts, pools, cafes and community, fitting the real-world social antidote to isolation.9%
- These collect fees on real-world spending itself, so they benefit no matter which experience category grows faster. · American ExpressIt clips a fee on flights, hotels, restaurants and events, making its travel and entertainment spending volume a running scoreboard for real-world experience growth., ToastIt runs the payments and software for restaurants people are lining up at, winning on the whole dining wave without picking which brand wins.8%
- Cash7%