The Busier World Bet
Drew Thomas@truedrew
0.0%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe AI raises the bar on productivity rather than lowering it, so people end up busier, not less busy. That means usage-priced software and the compute behind it get paid more as the world produces more, while the same stretched people pay to outsource dinner, errands, and chores. I've built this across mandatory productivity tools, metered compute, usage-based software, and the convenience economy, spread across many names rather than single bets, with 10% in cash to add on dips over a two-year window.
What it owns
- Busier people pay to reclaim their hours through delivered meals, outsourced errands, and automated household tasks. · AmazonIt captures both sides: AWS gets paid by usage as compute demand grows, and same-day delivery serves time-starved workers., Uber TechnologiesIt lets busier people buy back their hours through rides, meal delivery, and errands as free time shrinks., DoorDashIt captures the first chore that time-pressed workers abandon, as dinner delivery becomes routine rather than occasional., Chipotle Mexican GrillIt captures the workday meal for people without time to cook, relying on traffic and digital orders from busier workers., Maplebear (Instacart)It hands off groceries, one of the most regular chores that time-pressed people pay to skip., SharkNinjaIt sells devices that shrink chores like vacuuming and cooking, letting busy households trade money for reclaimed minutes.31%
- When output expectations rise, the platforms that multiply one person's work capability transition from optional to essential. · MicrosoftCopilot becomes unavoidable once employers expect more output per person, much like Excel evolved from optional to essential., ServiceNowIt sells the workflow automation that lets one person do what previously required a team, matching the raised output bar., ShopifyAI lets one person operate an entire store, and it captures a piece of every transaction that solo merchants push through., PalantirIt turns AI into daily operating decisions, becoming mandatory once competitors use it and higher output becomes the expectation.23%
- Every additional unit of AI-assisted work requires compute, and these companies collect on every unit that passes through. · NVIDIAIt processes nearly all the extra compute that AI-assisted work requires, and controls the infrastructure that measures this compute spending., BroadcomIt makes the networking and custom AI silicon that connects all the extra compute infrastructure together., Taiwan SemiconductorNearly every chip that meters the busier world gets manufactured there, so it collects on the entire compute buildout.18%
- Software priced by usage generates higher revenue every time the world produces more work, which is the core prediction of this take. · SnowflakeIt charges by compute consumption, so data from all that extra AI-powered work flows through Snowflake and inflates the bill., DatadogIt gets paid per host and per gigabyte monitored, so usage-based pricing means its revenue grows faster when companies do more work per employee., CloudflareIt bills for edge traffic and compute, earning more as the world conducts more activity online and through its network., MongoDBAtlas charges by consumption, so every new AI-built app that stores and reads data pays it by usage as more productive people build more applications.18%
- Cash10%