−8.6%
since Oct 8
The idea
I believe security budgets are consolidating, companies are dropping dozens of point tools for a handful of AI-powered platforms, and AI-driven attacks only accelerate that spending shift. This basket owns the platform leaders taking share, surrounding cloud, identity, and attack-surface names riding the same wave, plus two sector ETFs for ballast so no single company can sink it. No position is a concentrated bet, cash sits at 10% to add on panic dips, and the horizon is one to two years rather than a quick trade.
What it owns
- These companies sell consolidated security platforms that replace customers' older point products, betting that buyers will standardize on fewer vendors rather than stay fragmented. · Palo Alto NetworksIt actively bundles security tools to replace customers' point products, so the take depends on its platform deals and contract values continuing to grow., CrowdStrike HoldingsIt started with endpoint protection and keeps adding modules that customers adopt instead of standalone tools, with per-deal module adoption being the clearest sign consolidation is flowing to it., MicrosoftIt sells security as part of licenses companies already pay for, making it the default consolidation choice for many buyers, and it owns the AI infrastructure both attackers and defenders rely on., FortinetIt is converting its huge firewall customer base into a broader platform, especially where networking and security merge, and must show customers upgrading into the wider bundle.32%
- These positions replace legacy network perimeters and infrastructure with cloud-native services, capturing budgets freed up by customers moving away from older on-premise tools. · ZscalerIt replaces the old corporate network perimeter with a cloud service, exactly the kind of legacy replacement this take expects to draw budgets, with billings growth and large-customer additions as key signals., CloudflareIt sits in front of a huge share of internet traffic and is layering security and AI services on top of that position, betting security revenue keeps compounding as companies simplify onto its network., Check Point SoftwareIt is the cheaper, profitable incumbent pushing its own consolidated platform, giving this take a value-priced way to own the same shift while needing modest growth from platform momentum., Akamai TechnologiesIts growth now comes from security and cloud compute rather than content delivery, and the take needs security to keep becoming a bigger revenue share for this position to hold.20%
- These companies built security around artificial intelligence from inception or are rapidly converting existing customer bases into security buyers through AI-driven capabilities. · RubrikIt protects and recovers data after ransomware hits and is building AI-driven security on top of that data, needing fast subscription growth to justify higher stakes as AI raises attack costs., DatadogIt watches everything running in a company's cloud and is extending that visibility into security, fitting the fewer-vendors story by converting monitoring customers into security customers., SentinelOneIt built its defense around artificial intelligence from inception and competes directly with larger consolidation plays at lower prices, needing to keep growing fast and moving toward profit.14%
- These positions map and secure what companies expose to the internet, a job that grows more urgent as artificial intelligence accelerates attack speeds and complexity. · QualysIt tells companies where they are exposed before attackers find it, a map that becomes more urgent as AI-generated attacks accelerate, and stays profitable while broader consolidation happens., Tenable HoldingsIt maps everything a company exposes to the internet, a job that grows bigger as AI lets attackers probe faster, and needs its broader exposure-management platform to keep winning deals., Varonis SystemsIt secures the data itself by flagging who can touch what, which matters more as companies feed sensitive data into AI tools, and is converting customers to a cloud subscription model.10%
- Broad cybersecurity ETFs that track the overall sector, protecting the take if security spending rises but consolidates differently than expected. · First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETFIt holds the broad cybersecurity sector, so this take benefits if security spending rises even if a different vendor wins consolidation, and it caps damage from any single stock being wrong., Amplify Cybersecurity ETFIt is a second sector ETF that spreads ballast across two fund providers with slightly different holdings, keeping the take alive on broad spending trends if individual picks miss.9%
- Identity is where most attacks originate, so consolidating buyers need a serious identity layer independent of larger platform vendors. · OktaIdentity is where most modern attacks start, so consolidating buyers need a serious identity layer, and it is the largest independent option competing against bundled alternatives.5%
- Cash10%