−0.4%
since Oct 2
The idea
I believe medicine two decades out looks completely different: one-time gene fixes instead of lifelong treatment, AI designing drugs instead of trial and error, blood tests catching cancer before symptoms show. Rather than guess the winner, about a quarter sits in the tools and instrument makers every approach depends on regardless of whose science wins, while smaller stakes spread across gene editing, AI drug discovery, early detection, and new care delivery carry the upside if it arrives on schedule.
What it owns
- Drug developers and labs need constant investment in instruments and supplies regardless of which breakthroughs win. · Thermo Fisher ScientificIt supplies the instruments and reagents that nearly every drug developer and research lab depends on, collecting fees whichever breakthrough wins., DanaherIt builds the equipment for manufacturing biologic drugs and running diagnostics, infrastructure needed by whichever therapies emerge., West Pharmaceutical ServicesIt makes the vials, stoppers, and injection components for nearly every injectable drug, including new gene and biologic therapies., IlluminaIt makes the DNA sequencers behind most genomic medicine, capturing value as cheaper and more common sequencing spreads., Agilent TechnologiesIt sells the measurement and analysis instruments labs use daily, another way to get paid regardless of which therapy wins., 10x GenomicsIt sells tools that let scientists study biology one cell at a time, the resolution the next generation of cures gets designed at.28%
- One-time curative therapies, especially gene editing, are becoming real medicines with real economics. · Vertex PharmaceuticalsIt sells Casgevy, the first approved CRISPR therapy, proving one-time cures can sustain a profitable business and funding its next programs., CRISPR TherapeuticsIt co-owns Casgevy and is the purest bet that gene editing replaces lifelong treatment for serious diseases., Regeneron PharmaceuticalsIt built one of the largest human genetic databases and uses it to pick drug targets, the data-first approach this take expects to win., Intellia TherapeuticsIt is editing genes directly inside a patient's body rather than in a lab dish, potentially opening gene editing to far more diseases., Beam TherapeuticsIts base editing changes single DNA letters without cutting the strand, potentially safer and more precise than first-generation CRISPR., ARK Genomic Revolution ETFIt holds dozens of genomics companies in one fund, insurance that the take can be right about the field even if the individual moonshot picks here are wrong.27%
- Machine learning and simulation replace traditional screening as the primary way to find and design new drugs. · NVIDIAIf AI designs the drugs of tomorrow, it runs on its chips, from protein folding models to virtual drug screening., Tempus AIIt converts real patient records and genomic data into training material for medical AI, the raw ingredient drug discovery AI needs most., SchrodingerIts software simulates how drug molecules behave before anyone makes them, the computational design expected to replace traditional screening., Recursion PharmaceuticalsIt runs automated labs generating biology data at scale to train drug-finding AI, one of the purest versions of computational drug discovery.16%
- Medicine shifts from occasional doctor visits to continuous monitoring and automated management at home. · Intuitive SurgicalIt dominates robot-assisted surgery, and future operating rooms almost certainly contain more machines, not fewer., DexComIts continuous glucose monitors prove that constant body data beats occasional doctor visits, the care-delivery model this take expects to spread., InsuletIts tubeless Omnipod pump paired with sensors moves diabetes care from constant patient effort to automated management.13%
- Blood tests and non-invasive screening catch disease years earlier, when intervention is most effective. · NateraIts blood tests detect cancer recurrence and screen pregnancies from a simple draw, the early detection future this take depends on., Guardant HealthIt is a direct bet on blood tests catching cancer years earlier, including its Shield screening test for colon cancer.8%
- Cash8%