Minds and Megawatts
Meredith@meredithwoodclark
−5.6%
since Sep 15
The idea
I'm betting on two shortages I think will define the next decade: real treatment for the mental health crisis, and enough electricity to actually power AI. So this basket splits between psychiatric drugmakers with genuinely new medicines in their pipelines, and the equipment, grid, and clean generation companies building out power for data centers, the picks-and-shovels side that wins regardless of which AI company comes out on top. No single name is a huge bet, I keep a small cash buffer, and I'm holding for 5 to 10 years while the structural shift plays out.
What it owns
- Every AI data center needs transformers, turbines, cooling, and power distribution, and the companies making this equipment are the limiting factor in how fast data centers can expand. · Vertiv HoldingsIt supplies the cooling and power equipment that AI chips cannot run without, and liquid cooling for the newest chips is its core strength., EatonIt makes the switchgear, breakers, and power distribution that every data center needs regardless of which chips run inside, so its order backlog is a direct indicator of data center construction pace., GE VernovaIt sells gas turbines and grid equipment into a market where new turbine production slots are booked years in advance, showing the exact shortage this take describes., HubbellIt makes transformers and utility hardware, and transformers currently have multi-year wait times, creating one of the tightest bottlenecks in the entire grid buildout., nVent ElectricIt sells the electrical enclosures, connections, and liquid cooling that go into both data centers and grid upgrades, so it benefits from both halves of the electricity bet., Modine ManufacturingIt pivoted from car-parts cooling into data center cooling, which is now its growth engine, so it succeeds if this segment keeps compounding.30%
- The companies building transmission lines, generating affordable low-carbon power, and supplying fuel will need to keep pace with the electricity demand that AI data centers create. · Quanta ServicesIt employs the crews that build transmission lines and connect data centers to the grid, and skilled electrical labor may be the scarcest resource in this buildout., Constellation EnergyIt operates the largest US nuclear fleet and is already signing deals to sell power directly to data centers, including restarting Three Mile Island for Microsoft., NextEra EnergyIt is the largest builder of wind, solar, and battery storage in the country, which is the fastest and cheapest way to add new power when demand exceeds supply., First Trust Clean Edge Smart Grid ETFIt holds dozens of grid equipment and smart-grid companies worldwide, so it captures the winning companies in this buildout without owning individual stocks., CamecoIt is one of the few Western uranium miners of scale, so if nuclear power must supply data center demand, someone needs to extract the fuel., OkloIt is a pre-revenue small reactor company aiming to sell power directly to data centers, with years until its first reactor operates, so regulatory approval and construction schedule are everything.25%
- Large drugmakers are now selling the first genuinely new mental health drugs in decades, ending a long drought in the field. · Bristol-Myers SquibbIt owns Cobenfy, the first genuinely new schizophrenia drug mechanism in decades, which is the clearest proof that this wave of new psychiatric medicines is real., Johnson & JohnsonIts Spravato is the biggest commercial success among the new fast-acting depression treatments, already generating over a billion dollars a year in sales., Axsome TherapeuticsIt is a pure bet on new depression medicine: its Auvelity works in days instead of weeks, and the pipeline targets Alzheimer's agitation and narcolepsy., Neurocrine BiosciencesIt is a profitable company built entirely on brain drugs, proving that psychiatric medicines can be a durable standalone business and not just a side project for large drugmakers., AbbVieIt has been buying its way into psychiatry, including major acquisitions in brain drugs, betting billions that new psychiatric treatments are the next growth engine.24%
- Smaller companies with next-generation psychiatric drugs in development could deliver breakout treatments over the next decade. · Acadia PharmaceuticalsIt got the first approvals for Parkinson's psychosis and Rett syndrome treatment, showing the kind of overlooked brain conditions the industry is finally solving., SPDR S&P Biotech ETFIt holds a broad spread of small and mid-size biotechs, so it catches the next psychiatric breakthrough wherever it comes from and cushions single-stock risk., AlkermesIt makes money today on schizophrenia and bipolar drugs while pushing a novel narcolepsy drug through late-stage trials, combining current revenue with pipeline upside., Compass PathwaysIt is developing a psilocybin treatment for depression that resists other drugs through final-stage trials, and it only succeeds if those trials deliver and regulators approve.11%
- Cash10%