GLP-1 Picks and Shovels
Riaz Lalani@meta4
+3.2%
since Oct 8
The idea
I believe GLP-1 weight-loss drugs keep spreading as prices fall, and that the companies paid for every dose do better than the drugmakers whose prices keep getting cut. So I skip Lilly and Novo and instead own the injection supply chain (pens, vials, syringes), the firms making and testing the drug, the wholesalers shipping every box, and the trial researchers behind what's next. It's spread across 16 holdings with modest single-name weights, a bit of cash on the side, and I'd rethink it if shots stopped being how people take these drugs.
What it owns
- Every GLP-1 injection requires rubber stoppers, glass cartridges, syringes and needles, and these suppliers earn revenue on each unit regardless of which drugmaker's medication is inside. · West Pharmaceutical ServicesIt manufactures the rubber stoppers and seals that go into every GLP-1 cartridge and pen, earning revenue on every dose filled., Stevanato GroupIt produces the glass cartridges that form the core component of injectable GLP-1 pens., Becton, Dickinson and CompanyIt supplies prefilled syringes, injection components and pen delivery devices at scale to drugmakers producing GLP-1 therapies., Embecta CorpIt produces the pen needles that attach to injectable GLP-1 pens for each individual injection.29%
- Contract manufacturers fill and finish injectable GLP-1 doses while specialized equipment makers and testing firms ensure every batch meets standards, so their volume scales with production growth. · Thermo Fisher ScientificIt fills and finishes injectable GLP-1 drugs for multiple manufacturers and runs clinical trials, capturing revenue from manufacturing and trial operations across the obesity drug pipeline., Waters CorporationIt manufactures analytical testing instruments used to verify purity and quality of peptide-based GLP-1 drugs before release., ATS CorporationIt builds automated assembly lines for autoinjector pen production, capturing equipment orders each time drugmakers add manufacturing capacity., Agilent TechnologiesIt sells analytical testing equipment and consumables used to test GLP-1 peptide batches for purity and quality during manufacturing., Danaher CorporationIt manufactures filtration equipment, production components and supplies used in GLP-1 drug manufacturing facilities.27%
- Large US drug wholesalers distribute nearly all GLP-1 prescriptions to pharmacies and clinics, so their revenue grows as prescription volumes climb. · McKesson CorporationIt is the largest US drug wholesaler and distributes GLP-1 prescriptions to retail pharmacies and clinics on a per-box basis., CencoraIt distributes specialty injectable drugs including GLP-1s to pharmacies and clinics as a major wholesaler., Cardinal HealthIt is the third major US drug wholesaler, supplying GLP-1 prescriptions and other medications to retail pharmacies.21%
- Clinical trial operators conduct obesity studies for multiple drugmakers, so they earn fees whether established companies or newcomers ultimately bring drugs to market. · Medpace HoldingsIt operates clinical trials for smaller and mid-size pharmaceutical companies developing obesity and GLP-1-related drugs., IQVIA HoldingsIt operates the largest clinical trial business globally and provides prescription tracking data, benefiting from both new obesity drug trials and monitoring GLP-1 adoption patterns., ICON plcIt operates large-scale clinical trials for major pharmaceutical companies testing new GLP-1 drugs and obesity treatment indications.15%
- Cash8%