Four Convictions Blend
−2.6%
since Sep 30
The idea
I'm blending four convictions I hold at once: stocks and money moving onto blockchain rails, GLP-1 drugs becoming a massive medical category, Chinese tech being cheaper and improving faster than most assume, and American life and commerce continuing to shift online. Rather than the obvious headline name in each theme, I lean toward the picks-and-shovels layer, like exchanges building tokenization infrastructure or drug-delivery suppliers alongside the pharma giants.
What it owns
- Exchanges, brokers, and infrastructure firms are building the rails for stocks to trade on blockchains, capturing value as this market infrastructure develops. · Coinbase GlobalIt is the biggest US on-ramp for moving assets onto blockchain rails and is the leading platform for launching tokenized asset products., Robinhood MarketsIt is already offering tokenized stocks to customers outside the US, making it the broker most directly betting on stocks moving to blockchains., Nasdaq IncIt is the incumbent exchange building blockchain settlement infrastructure for stocks it already lists, positioning it to profit if tokenized equities go mainstream., Galaxy DigitalIt builds and finances infrastructure that tokenized markets run on, offering exposure to on-chain asset growth without betting on any single exchange or platform.22%
- US-listed Chinese technology and commerce giants trade at steep discounts to American peers while their artificial intelligence and core businesses improve. · Alibaba GroupIt is a commerce and cloud giant with serious artificial intelligence models, trading far below comparable American peers in a market that consensus views too negatively., PDD HoldingsIt grows by selling cheaper than competitors at home and abroad through a major marketplace, yet trades at a discount to US retailers with slower growth., KraneShares CSI China Internet ETFIt holds the entire Chinese internet and technology sector in a single fund, capturing broad re-rating upside if China technology improves faster than consensus expects., BaiduIt is China's leading search company and artificial intelligence model developer, offering exposure to the idea that Chinese artificial intelligence is advancing faster than commonly acknowledged., NetEaseIt generates steady cash flow from games and entertainment, providing earnings stability to a China technology portfolio that does not rely on advertising or commerce cycles.22%
- The drugmakers and suppliers of pens, syringes, and vials behind weight-loss drugs stand to benefit as these treatments expand into one of medicine's largest markets. · Eli LillyIt leads the GLP-1 market with two major weight-loss drugs, making it the most direct way to own the belief that prescriptions and market share keep growing., Novo NordiskIt makes two leading weight-loss drugs and trades cheaper than its main competitor after recent difficulties, offering exposure to GLP-1 market growth at a lower valuation., West Pharmaceutical ServicesIt makes the components inside injector pens for weight-loss drugs, earning revenue based on injectable volume regardless of which drugmaker gains market share., Stevanato GroupIt supplies pens and syringes for weight-loss drugs, earning revenue on injectable volumes while remaining independent of which drugmaker dominates the market., Viking TherapeuticsIt is a small biotechnology company developing an oral version of a weight-loss drug, offering potential acquisition upside or standalone growth if clinical trials continue to succeed.21%
- Platforms where American attention and commerce already concentrate keep consolidating their reach and monetizing user engagement and transactions. · Meta PlatformsIt owns more American attention than any other company through its messaging and social platforms, collecting advertising revenue as daily usage and online life keep growing., Amazon.comIt is the primary destination for online commerce in the US and runs the cloud infrastructure that powers the internet, benefiting as shopping and digital services shift online., RedditIt is where internet communities and search traffic increasingly land, and it remains early in converting that user attention into advertising and data revenue.13%
- Stablecoins and tokenized funds are moving dollars onto internet-based payment and settlement systems, shifting how financial value flows and clears. · Circle Internet GroupIt issues the regulated dollar stablecoin used for payments and settlement on blockchains, positioning it to benefit as US money moves onto internet rails., PayPal HoldingsIt operates a large payments network and has issued its own stablecoin, serving as a bridge between today's online payments and dollars moving to blockchains., BlackRockIt is the world's largest asset manager and is already running tokenized funds on blockchains, capturing US financial assets as they move to internet-based systems.12%
- Cash10%