Agents Run Your Life
vlad@vlad
+3.9%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe AI agents go mainstream fast, within a couple years, as the way people handle everyday and administrative tasks like travel, bills, and expenses. This basket owns the builders putting agents into consumer and enterprise software, plus the payment, identity, and booking rails those agents will need to actually get things done. A small slice sits in out-of-favor dark horse names, capped at 2% each, with cash held back to add on dips given how concentrated and near-term this bet is.
What it owns
- These platforms reach billions of people through software and services they already use daily, positioning them to capture mainstream adoption if agents become the default way people handle tasks. · AlphabetIt can put Gemini agents on billions of Android phones and in Search, the two places people start errands, but only wins if agents become the default way users book, pay, and file things., MicrosoftIt is pushing Copilot agents into Windows and Office, the software offices already run on, so adoption depends on people handing the agent actual tasks rather than just asking questions., Meta PlatformsIts assistant sits inside WhatsApp, Instagram, and Messenger where billions already spend time, but only creates value if it evolves from a chatbot into something that executes tasks., AmazonIt owns shopping end to end with Alexa in homes and warehouses shipping orders, so the take needs agentic shopping to become a normal purchase method on its platform.27%
- Businesses will pay earliest for agents that automate office and administrative work, and these companies already own the software where that work happens. · SalesforceIt is selling Agentforce as agents that do administrative work inside business software, and growth depends on companies paying for agents that replace manual tasks., ServiceNowIt runs the ticket-and-approval systems inside large organizations, which is exactly the administrative work agents are expected to handle first., Palantir TechnologiesIt builds agents that operate inside real workflows for governments and enterprises, and growth depends on customers willing to let agents make and execute decisions in operations., IntuitIt owns the software where taxes, bookkeeping, and expenses get done, the exact chores the take expects agents to absorb if TurboTax and QuickBooks agents move from suggesting to filing.23%
- An agent that runs autonomously needs to execute payments, and these networks are building the protocols that enable software to spend on behalf of users. · VisaVisa is piloting payment protocols that let software execute transactions autonomously, and the take depends on those pilots becoming live standards that agent platforms adopt., MastercardIt built Agent Pay so agents can transact through payment networks, and the take needs Mastercard to remain one of the default protocols agents use alongside Visa., ShopifyIf agents do the shopping, merchants need storefronts agents can read and buy from, and it hosts millions of sellers who need that layer., PayPalIt is building checkout APIs designed for agents to call, betting agent platforms will route purchases through its wallet rather than going straight to card networks.20%
- Agents need to verify who they work for and access real-world inventory like flights and reservations to complete tasks, and these companies provide those capabilities. · OktaOkta builds the identity layer that agents need to prove their authorization, and the take assumes agent identity becomes a paid product that enterprises adopt rather than a free feature inside larger platforms., TwilioAgents that book appointments and chase refunds need to call, text, and email, and it sells those communication pipes by message volume., Uber TechnologiesIt operates the physical network agents need to book rides and arrange deliveries, and must open access to agent platforms for the take to work., Booking HoldingsIt owns the travel inventory agents would pull from when booking is the first errand people hand to an agent.14%
- Small, out-of-favor agent companies where a single breakthrough in adoption or bookings could deliver outsized returns, sized small enough that underperformance barely affects the take. · SoundHound AIIt sells voice agents to restaurants and carmakers, and a breakthrough in voice becoming the mainstream agent interface would return value quickly from this small position., UiPathIt already automates back-office paperwork and is rebuilding around agents, exactly the administrative work the take says goes mainstream., monday.comIt is adding agents that run workflows for smaller teams the big vendors skip, and the small position accepts the risk that agent features stay a checkbox rather than driving growth., C3.aiIt is a beaten-down enterprise AI vendor pitching agent applications where a return to growth through agent bookings would justify the small stake.8%
- Cash8%