On-Chain Volume Barbell
David Sherry@dsherry
−6.1%
since Oct 3
The idea
I believe two megatrends compound together: every tradable asset moving on chain, and AI agents becoming the heaviest users of those rails. Rather than bet on which token wins, I own the toll collectors, exchanges, stablecoin issuers, and processors earning on every transaction, plus a sleeve of payments and data firms wiring agent commerce, a spicier slice of token conviction through listed proxies, and a thin bank position. I hold cash to add on dips and I'm working a two year catalyst window, so if that window closes without the on-chain volume showing up, I'd rethink it.
What it owns
- Exchanges, stablecoin issuers, and tokenization venues earn fees on every on-chain transaction regardless of which token succeeds. · Coinbase GlobalIt earns transaction fees on every trade as assets move on chain, capturing value from tokenization and equity tokenization products regardless of which token dominates., Robinhood MarketsIt wins from processing more transactions as equities tokenize and move on chain, with transaction volume growth driving revenue expansion., Circle Internet GroupIt issues the stablecoin rails that on-chain commerce and agent settlement run on, earning fees as USDC circulation expands., CME GroupIt collects tolls on crypto and tokenized-asset derivatives volume regardless of which token succeeds, capturing value from derivative growth., Figure Technology SolutionsIt originates and trades loans on chain today, proving that the long march of digitizing assets is already producing revenue from on-chain lending volume., Galaxy DigitalIt is the infrastructure that institutions use to get assets on chain, earning from transaction flow and institutional tokenization deals., BullishIt earns from institutional on-chain trading volume, capturing value from transaction flow rather than depending on any single token's price appreciation., Intercontinental ExchangeIt owns traditional market infrastructure that can capture on-chain volume by converting its exchange and data franchises rather than being displaced by tokenization., Gemini Space StationIt is a smaller, higher-leverage exchange bet on accelerating on-chain trading volumes, positioned further out the risk curve.46%
- Payments networks and data companies are building the infrastructure that AI agents will use to move and manage money on behalf of users. · VisaIt is building the network that agents will use to execute payments on behalf of their operators, positioning it at the center of agent-driven commerce., MastercardIt is shipping its own protocol for agent-initiated payments, positioned to capture transaction volume as AI agents handle money management., S&P GlobalIt sells ratings, indexes, and market data that agents managing money will need, benefiting from growth in autonomous financial decision-making., PayPal HoldingsIt has its own stablecoin and an agent-operable wallet, positioned at the intersection of stablecoin adoption and agent-driven payment growth.20%
- US-listed treasury companies holding tokens offer tradable exposure to assets further out the risk curve than direct ownership allows. · Hyperliquid StrategiesIt provides US-listed exposure to a token with high conviction on-chain trading volume, tracking the underlying asset through a treasury structure., Cypherpunk TechnologiesIt offers US-listed exposure to a privacy-focused token through a treasury proxy, positioned for adoption as private on-chain money becomes more relevant.16%
- Banks already shipping on-chain deposits and agent tooling stand to become more productive as automation increases transaction throughput per employee. · JPMorgan ChaseIt is already shipping deposit tokens and on-chain settlement, capturing productivity gains as agents handle more transactions per employee., SoFi TechnologiesIt is a digital bank with low headcount per dollar, positioned to become more productive as agents handle more transactions and as it integrates with crypto and agent rails.9%
- Cash10%