Work Stays Boring
Dan@dan
+11.9%
since Sep 30
The idea
I think work changes far less than the AI hype suggests, so I'm betting on the boring middle. One side owns the software tools people already use daily, which just bolt on AI and charge more. The other side owns businesses priced like AI wipes them out, payroll, IT services, data and research firms, screened for sticky customers and real cash profits. I keep a small cash buffer, avoid single-name concentration, and plan to hold for years unless the actual pace of job disruption proves faster than history suggests.
What it owns
- The software already on every work computer is where AI actually shows up, as a paid add-on to what people were doing anyway. · MicrosoftIt sold the spreadsheets that absorbed into work, and if AI follows the same pattern, it will sell the AI layer on top of Office and Teams as a paid add-on., IntuitSmall businesses already run their books in QuickBooks and taxes in TurboTax, and the company is charging extra for AI features bolted on top., SAP SEIt is the back-office plumbing at large companies, the exact kind of daily tool that gets a new AI layer added rather than replaced., AdobeProfessionals using Photoshop and Acrobat every day keep using them with AI features folded in at a higher price rather than switching to something new., SalesforceSales teams already live in it, and the company is charging extra for AI agents on top of the existing platform.28%
- Staffing and IT services trade as if AI replaces them; if jobs mostly stay the same, these keep getting paid. · AccentureInstalling new tools at big companies is its core business, and if AI gets adopted as just another layer rather than a replacement, someone gets paid to wire it in., CognizantIt carries a discount priced as if AI makes IT services obsolete, but corporate tech work tends to stay messy and human-dependent for years., Robert HalfIt is priced as if AI ends hiring for office jobs, but if most jobs stay the same with new tools added, companies still need people for those jobs., InfosysIt runs core systems for clients under multi-year contracts that are painful to leave, and that stickiness survives technology scares., EPAM SystemsIt is priced as if AI writes all the code, but companies still pay skilled people to build and fix software with AI as a tool in their hands.23%
- Subscription research and professional data feeds are billed as AI roadkill but have decades-long customer relationships and fat cash margins. · RELXIt supplies the legal, scientific, and risk intelligence that professionals across multiple industries depend on to make decisions., Thomson ReutersLawyers and accountants pay for data they cannot do their jobs without, and AI features layered onto that data increase its value to subscribers., FactSetIt sits on finance desks as a daily tool like a spreadsheet, and the case holds if firms keep the subscription and pay for AI features inside it., GartnerCompanies confused about technology buy its research to figure things out, and the wave of AI arguably raises demand for exactly that kind of advice.21%
- Payroll, HR and tax run every workplace, and companies almost never rip them out, tools or no tools. · Automatic Data ProcessingPaychecks go out every two weeks no matter what tools exist, and ripping out a payroll system is the last thing any company wants to attempt., PaychexIt runs payroll and HR for small businesses that are least likely to be remade by new technology, and it generates real cash profits., WorkdayIt is where big companies keep the official record of who works there and what they earn, a system nobody swaps out on a whim., H&R BlockIt is priced as if AI does everyone's taxes soon, but it throws off cash and people keep showing up each tax season instead of handing it to a chatbot.20%
- Cash8%