−7.4%
since Oct 8
The idea
I don't think anyone can call which AI lab wins, so I'd rather own the toll booths every agent has to pass through regardless of winner. The basket splits into neutral rails that carry and watch the traffic, payments and identity companies agents need to transact, a spread of chipmakers instead of one compute bet, and software firms rebuilding around agents. No single name dominates, 10% sits in cash, and the thesis breaks if one lab ends up owning the whole stack top to bottom.
What it owns
- Companies providing infrastructure that AI agents will depend on regardless of which labs or models dominate, taking a cut of activity flowing through their networks or platforms. · CloudflareIt sits in front of a large share of internet traffic and charges for moving and securing it, so more AI agents making requests means more paid traffic flowing through its network., MongoDBIt is a default database for new applications, and agents generating and querying data at machine speed means more workloads landing on its platform., DatadogEvery AI system running in production needs monitoring, and it bills by the volume it watches, so more agents doing more things means a larger bill., ElasticIt sells the search technology that lets AI systems pull relevant answers from a company's own documents, which nearly every serious AI application needs., TwilioWhen an agent needs to text, call, or email a human, it goes through communication rails like its platform, and it charges per message.30%
- Companies positioned to handle identity verification, payments, and settlement when agents transact on behalf of users or conduct machine-to-machine commerce. · CoinbaseIt is the regulated US venue where agent-driven cryptocurrency and stablecoin transactions would settle and get custodied if machine-to-machine crypto payments become real volume., OktaBefore an agent can act on behalf of a user, something has to verify who the agent is and what it is allowed to do, which is the identity layer it is building., VisaWhen an agent buys something with real money, the transaction most likely rides its network, and it takes a cut per transaction regardless of who built the agent., CircleIt issues USDC, the stablecoin most likely to be the money agents move, and earns yield on the reserves backing every dollar in circulation.24%
- Companies that benefit from multiple AI chip architectures and vendors competing, rather than one standard consolidating the market. · Advanced Micro DevicesIt is the clearest alternative to Nvidia for AI compute, and buyers want a second source to choose from, which keeps demand coming regardless of which lab advances faster., BroadcomIt builds custom AI chips for major cloud providers and the networking gear connecting them, so it gets paid by the labs trying to reduce dependence on any single vendor., Arm HoldingsIt licenses its chip designs to nearly every company building AI silicon, so it collects royalties as long as multiple architectures compete in the market., QualcommIt powers AI inference on phones and laptops instead of in data centers, so it collects revenue on every device regardless of whose model is running.22%
- Companies building or hosting the data, tools, and platforms that agents will need to understand context and execute work for enterprises. · ShopifyIt powers the storefronts that agents will shop from and is building interfaces that let an agent browse and buy directly from merchants., SnowflakeEnterprises cannot point agents at their business without data organized somewhere, and it is where much of that data already lives and ready for AI to run against., GitLabCode written by AI agents still needs review, testing, and deployment, and it sells that entire pipeline.14%
- Cash10%