Few Big AI Platforms Win
Jake Barach@jakebarach
The idea
I think AI adoption is spreading from the bottom up, slower than the hype suggests, and that people will eventually tune out the flood of standalone AI tools. So I'd rather own the platforms already embedded in the workday: office and CRM suites, workflow systems of record, the professional data providers, plus the security and data layers underneath. Cybersecurity is sized smaller after its recent run, and I keep a cash buffer. This is a multi-year hold, not a trade on near-term AI headlines, and I'd rethink it if these platforms stopped being where the actual AI usage happens.
What will be bought
- Email, documents and customer records are where senior people already spend their day, so AI built into them gets used by default. · MicrosoftIts Office suite products are opened every morning by most professionals, so Copilot gains adoption as the default AI interface already embedded in their daily tools., AlphabetIts Workspace products for email, documents and sheets include Gemini built in, so the AI reaches business users without requiring them to adopt a separate application., SalesforceIt's where sales teams already log every customer and deal, so AI inside it skips the learn-a-new-app problem if customers buy its own AI features instead of separate sales tools.31%
- Companies that run HR, IT tickets and finance become the single place AI agents work, instead of ten separate tools. · ServiceNowIt runs the IT tickets, HR requests and approvals at big companies, which is the routine work AI climbs through first if large customers keep adding its AI features to existing contracts., SAP SEIt holds the finance, purchasing and supply chain records that big companies almost never rip out, so AI added there reaches workers without a new tool if customers keep moving to its cloud software and paying for AI add-ons., WorkdayIt is where payroll, expenses and hiring already happen, so its built-in AI becomes the default for HR and finance staff if it keeps renewing its big customers and isn't replaced by newer AI-first HR software., AtlassianJira and Confluence are where teams already track projects and write docs, and it's pushing AI workflows straight into them, so they use that AI inside Jira rather than drifting to separate project tools.20%
- Lawyers, accountants and analysts trust AI that comes from the research and tax tools they already pay for. · Thomson ReutersLawyers and accountants already pay for Westlaw and Thomson Reuters tax software, so AI built into those is what busy partners will actually use if firms keep buying legal and tax AI through it rather than switching to startups., IntuitQuickBooks and TurboTax are what small businesses and their accountants already use, so they'll use the AI inside them if QuickBooks keeps its customers rather than losing them to AI-first bookkeeping tools., S&P GlobalAnalysts and bankers already pay for its ratings and Capital IQ data, and AI built on data they trust is easier to adopt than a general chatbot if finance teams keep paying for its tools rather than replacing them., RELXIt owns LexisNexis, the other research tool nearly every law firm already pays for, so AI added there reaches lawyers without a new login if firms stick with Lexis for AI research instead of switching to standalone apps.19%
- When companies cut down to fewer AI tools, they buy security from fewer, larger vendors too. · Palo Alto NetworksAs companies cut down to fewer AI tools, they're also buying security from fewer vendors, and it's built to be that one vendor if customers keep moving more of their security onto its platform., CrowdStrikeIt protects the laptops and servers where all this AI actually runs, and it wins by replacing several smaller security products at once if it keeps winning those consolidation deals., OktaIt controls who and which AI agent can log into which work app, so more AI inside the big platforms means more logins to manage if companies keep using it as their main login system.12%
- Whatever AI wins inside a company has to pull from the company's own data, and these firms hold it. · SnowflakeEvery big platform's AI needs clean company data, and a lot of it sits here, so more AI use inside the suites means more work running on it if customers keep their data there instead of moving it to the big suites' storage., Palantir TechnologiesIt sells big companies and governments the software that ties their data to AI and daily decisions, sold from the top down to leadership, and stays only if large customers keep expanding their contracts., MongoDBIt is the database under a lot of the apps companies build, so AI features added to those apps store and pull data from it if developers keep picking it for new AI features rather than bundled databases.10%
- Cash8%