Transport Moves Off Batteries
Jed Bridges@jed
+2.4%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe the backlash against battery supply chains, cobalt mining, and lithium extraction pushes transport away from batteries over the next five years, with cars and trucks moving first. The basket owns hybrid champions, the hydrogen trucking chain, engine and truck makers built for a long combustion tail, and the aftermarket shops that benefit as the existing gas fleet ages, plus a fuels sleeve for what powers those engines. I keep a small cash buffer and spread bets across many names rather than one, planning to hold for years unless the drift back from batteries stalls out.
What it owns
- Heavy trucks struggle with battery range and cost, so hydrogen engines become the leading alternative if transport shifts away from pure electric. · CumminsIt profits from both extending diesel engine life in trucks and building hydrogen engines as trucking's alternative to batteries., LindeIt is the largest producer and distributor of hydrogen gas, and would supply the fuel if heavy trucking shifts to hydrogen engines., Air Products and ChemicalsIt is investing in hydrogen production and fueling infrastructure specifically for trucking, and profits if that sector actually transitions to hydrogen., Plug PowerIt makes only fuel cells and hydrogen equipment, so it rises sharply if heavy transport adopts hydrogen engines at scale., Ballard Power SystemsIt builds fuel cells for heavy trucks and buses, the first vehicles likely to move away from battery engines.22%
- If battery cars lose buyer interest, the automakers that kept hybrid lineups ready have the vehicles people want instead. · Toyota MotorIt never abandoned hybrids and holds the deepest hybrid lineup, positioned to capture sales if buyers drift from pure battery cars., Honda MotorIt sells hybrids across its lineup without concentrating on batteries, capturing buyers who turn away from battery supply chain concerns., Ford MotorIt leads in hybrid pickup production, the vehicle American buyers choose when they want to skip batteries without abandoning trucks.20%
- Combustion truck and engine makers extend their profitable runs if the timeline for phasing out internal combustion lengthens. · PACCARIt makes Kenworth and Peterbilt diesel trucks that keep generating profit if battery truck adoption disappoints and fleets stay with combustion longer., Allison TransmissionIt makes transmissions for combustion trucks, a component that disappears in battery vehicles, so every year combustion trucking lasts extends its market., Magna InternationalIt supplies parts for hybrid, hydrogen, and combustion vehicles, profiting from any non-battery powertrain shift without betting on a single path., BorgWarnerIt makes turbochargers and hybrid components, so a buyer shift from battery cars to hybrids increases its content per vehicle produced.20%
- Drivers who skip battery cars keep older gas vehicles longer, and repair shops and parts retailers benefit from each extra year on the road. · O'Reilly AutomotiveIt supplies parts for the repair shops that service an aging gas fleet staying on the road longer than expected., AutoZoneIt sells parts to owners who repair aging gas cars instead of replacing them with battery vehicles., Genuine PartsIt operates NAPA, which supplies professional repair shops, and benefits from the repair volume as aging combustion vehicles stay on the road., ValvolineIts oil change shops only serve combustion and hybrid engines, so it benefits as these vehicles stay on the road instead of being replaced by batteries.20%
- Engines that stay on roads need fuel, and renewable diesel offers a lower-carbon option for fleets avoiding batteries. · Valero EnergyIt refines fuel for engines that don't plug in, including renewable diesel for fleets seeking cleaner fuel without battery supply chains., Darling IngredientsIt supplies the fats and oils that become renewable diesel, the cleaner fuel option for engines that bypass batteries.10%
- Cash8%