The Dimon Doctrine
blake/williams@bfw
−0.6%
since Oct 6
The idea
I believe Jamie Dimon's convictions are a good map for where capital flows next, so JPMorgan sits at the core with four themes built around his own public priorities: the American energy and grid buildout, rearming the US, rebuilding domestic industry, and banks freed from heavy capital rules. It's spread across large, established names in each theme rather than single bets, with a small cash buffer, and held for years rather than traded. If Dimon were to leave the top seat, I would revisit the whole thesis.
What it owns
- These companies supply the turbines, electrical hardware, construction crews, nuclear power, natural gas, and pipelines needed for a large-scale American energy and grid expansion. · GE VernovaIt manufactures turbines and grid equipment that would be deployed across a major American power and grid buildout., EatonIt makes the electrical hardware and distribution systems inside data centers, factories, and grid infrastructure undergoing electrification., Quanta ServicesIt provides the construction and engineering services to build out transmission lines and substations across the grid., Constellation EnergyIt operates the largest US nuclear fleet, which generates the reliable, always-on electricity needed for a modern grid., EQT CorporationIt is the largest US natural gas producer and would benefit from rising demand for power generation and liquefied exports., Williams CompaniesIt operates the natural gas pipeline network that would carry increasing volumes from production to power plants and export facilities.33%
- These defense contractors build the carriers, submarines, missiles, and armored vehicles at the core of a sustained US rearmament cycle. · Lockheed MartinIt is the largest US manufacturer of missiles and munitions, which would see sustained demand in a rearmament cycle., Huntington Ingalls IndustriesIt builds aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships for the US Navy, which would need sustained multi-year funding in a rearmament program., RTX CorporationIt manufactures missiles and air defense systems that would be replenished globally and domestically in a sustained rearmament environment., General DynamicsIt builds submarines and armored vehicles for the US military, which would require sustained defense spending over multiple years.19%
- These companies make the machinery, steel, and equipment rental services that underpin a domestic industrial buildout across construction, mining, power, and defense. · CaterpillarIt manufactures the heavy equipment and machinery used in construction, mining, and power generation across industrial buildouts., NucorIt is the largest US steelmaker and would supply steel for grid infrastructure, factories, and defense shipbuilding projects., United RentalsIt rents construction equipment and machinery used across grid expansion, factory buildout, and shipyard projects.14%
- These banks would unlock capital for buybacks, lending, and dealmaking if heavy regulatory capital requirements are rolled back. · Goldman SachsIt would benefit from lighter bank capital requirements that free up capital for dealmaking and capital markets activity., Bank of AmericaIt would unlock capital for buybacks and lending if lighter bank capital requirements reduce regulatory constraints on large US banks., Morgan StanleyIt would deploy freed-up capital into wealth management and capital markets businesses if regulatory capital requirements are eased.14%
- It is the largest US bank by assets and the anchor of this take. · JPMorgan ChaseIt is the largest US bank by assets and the anchor of this take.12%
- Cash8%