Build Our Way Out
flox✨@floxdairo
−2.1%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe America simply hasn't built enough homes for decades, and that gap is why buying feels out of reach and rents keep climbing. The only way this resolves is through building, so I own the whole chain: big homebuilders with the land and scale to add supply, the suppliers who get paid regardless of which builder wins, and the affordable and manufactured home specialists where priced-out buyers actually end up. I keep it broad across all of them rather than betting on one builder, hold some cash on the side, and treat this as a multi-year shortage story, not a quick trade.
What it owns
- Lumber, materials, and fixtures get purchased for every home built regardless of which builder constructs it, making suppliers indifferent to competition. · Builders FirstSourceIt sells lumber, trusses, and framing to builders of every size, earning from total housing starts regardless of which builder wins., Home DepotIt supplies both professionals building new homes and owners fixing old ones, profiting from strong construction and renovation spending., Sherwin-WilliamsEvery home built or resold gets painted, and it sells more paint than anyone, profiting from the entire construction wave., MascoIt makes faucets, fixtures, and coatings that go into every new home and renovation, earning on total building volume., Vulcan MaterialsIt sells crushed stone for roads, driveways, and foundations before a single home goes up, earning first when neighborhoods scale., Owens CorningIt makes insulation and roofing that every finished home requires, profiting from both new construction and re-roofing demand., WeyerhaeuserIt owns timberland and mills behind the lumber in nearly every wood-framed home, earning when housing starts sustain demand and prices.31%
- These companies have the land, scale, and execution to close the housing gap by delivering homes at the volumes the shortage demands. · D.R. HortonIt closes more homes than any other builder in America, most at entry-level prices where the shortage bites hardest., LennarIt builds at massive scale aimed squarely at first-time buyers, the demographic most locked out by the shortage., PulteGroupIt builds across the full range from first homes to retirement homes, collecting from supply-constrained buyers at every life stage., NVRIt options land instead of owning it, allowing steady home delivery through cycles that would strain competitors with heavy balance sheets., Toll BrothersIt builds pricier homes that current owners move up to, freeing older stock for the next buyer in the chain.29%
- Manufactured and entry-level homes are where priced-out buyers land when site-built homes exceed their reach, concentrating the shortage's pressure. · Cavco IndustriesIt manufactures homes at a fraction of site-built prices, serving the exact affordability tier where priced-out buyers land., Champion HomesIt builds factory-made homes at prices site builders cannot match, capturing the most price-sensitive buyers the shortage displaces., LGI HomesIt builds simple, cheap homes for first-time buyers and converts renters into owners, the purest site-built bet on affordability demand., M/I HomesIt builds affordable homes in Midwest and Southeast markets where buyers can still afford site-built construction., Equity LifeStyle PropertiesIt owns manufactured home communities and collects lot rent from residents, capturing steady income as demand for affordable homes stays high.21%
- While the housing gap remains open, single-family landlords collect rising rents that prove the take's core argument about supply scarcity. · American Homes 4 RentIt owns tens of thousands of single-family rentals and builds new ones, earning from the shortage while supply remains tight., Invitation HomesIt owns tens of thousands of single-family rentals, collecting rising rents as long as the shortage keeps buying out of reach.9%
- Cash10%