Prediction Market Toll Booths
−1.6%
since Oct 3
The idea
I believe event contracts and prediction markets are headed toward becoming a massive asset class, and since the purest plays like Kalshi and Polymarket aren't public, I built exposure to everything around them instead. One sleeve owns the brokers and betting apps racing to distribute event contracts to retail, which should move fast around volume and election cycles. The other owns the exchanges, clearing systems, on-chain settlement rails, and data plumbing that compound as the category matures over years.
What it owns
- Brokers and betting apps that put event contracts in front of millions of retail customers collect fees on the fastest-growing slice of prediction-market volume. · Robinhood MarketsIt is where most retail traders first access event contracts, collecting a toll on volumes that climb especially during election cycles., Coinbase GlobalIt sits at the crypto-native front door, positioned to distribute event contracts to the same audience already trading on-chain markets., DraftKingsIt owns Railbird, a regulated event-contract exchange, turning a betting app into a toll booth if prediction markets pull volume away from traditional sportsbooks., Interactive BrokersIt owns ForecastEx and earns fees on both sides as a broker distributing contracts and as an exchange matching them., Flutter EntertainmentIt runs the biggest betting apps globally and has the audience and licenses to move into event contracts as they become the next thing retail bets on., WebullIt already offers event contracts in-app, making it a pure distribution bet on retail adoption and volume growth.35%
- Regulated exchanges and clearinghouses collect fees on every contract traded regardless of who wins the retail race or how volumes flow. · Intercontinental ExchangeIt holds a stake in Polymarket and runs its own exchange and clearing rails, positioning it to benefit as on-chain prediction markets grow., CME GroupIt operates as a regulated exchange and clearinghouse already listing event contracts, earning fees that compound over time if the asset class matures., Cboe Global MarketsIt has a history of turning new derivative types into listed, cleared products, a playbook that fits event contracts., NasdaqIt sells the matching and surveillance technology that regulated prediction-market venues need, positioning it as infrastructure supplier to a growing asset class.26%
- Chains, oracles and stablecoin issuers that process on-chain prediction volume grow with every contract settled and every outcome resolved on their networks. · Circle Internet GroupIt issues USDC, the stablecoin that on-chain prediction markets settle in, so growth in on-chain event volume means more stablecoin circulation and interest income., EthereumPolymarket and its peers settle on it, so on-chain prediction volume translates directly into network demand., SolanaIt offers the speed and low costs that on-chain prediction trading needs to scale if volumes grow too large for slower settlement rails., ChainlinkEvery on-chain prediction market needs trusted oracles to know what actually happened, making it the toll booth for resolving outcomes at scale.20%
- Event markets need licensed data and odds feeds to price and resolve contracts, making this a quiet but essential layer underneath the entire ecosystem. · Sportradar GroupIt sells the odds and event data that sports-linked prediction markets need to price and settle contracts, a service that grows with retail adoption., Genius SportsIt owns exclusive licensed data rights, so prediction venues that want to run sports event contracts legitimately have to pay it.7%
- Cash12%