−5.4%
since Sep 30
The idea
I don't think the AI stack ends up owned top to bottom by one or two model makers, so I'm not betting on any single lab. Instead I hold neutral infrastructure that gets paid regardless of who wins, rails for agent-driven payments and identity, chip diversification away from any single architecture, and a few application companies rebuilding around agents. I swapped card-network exposure for stablecoin rails, betting agent payments look more like small on-chain transactions than existing card swipes.
What it owns
- Infrastructure every AI company pays for no matter which model wins. · CloudflareIt serves as the neutral front door for AI and agent traffic, collecting payment regardless of which model lab wins., MongoDBIt is the model-neutral database where agents from any lab read and write data, earning the same way regardless of which model wins., DatadogIt watches what agents do through observability tools companies buy separately, so it gets paid no matter which model runs underneath., TwilioIt routes agent-driven messaging through neutral APIs that don't care which model placed the request., ElasticIt is the search and retrieval layer agents use to find things, infrastructure that stays between the models and earns regardless of which lab wins.30%
- The payment and identity rails agents use to transact, tilted to stablecoins where tiny payments actually work. · CircleIt settles agent payments in stablecoins at sizes no card rail can price, so it captures volume on chains where tiny transactions run., CoinbaseIt owns Base, the chain where agent payments settle at sizes card rails cannot handle, so it earns on volume no matter which agents transact., OktaIt provides identity proof for agents acting on their own, a standardized layer companies pay for rather than each lab building its own.24%
- Chipmakers that gain as inference spreads beyond any single architecture or vendor. · Advanced Micro DevicesIt provides inference compute that isn't Nvidia, so this take diversifies away from a single architecture winning., BroadcomIt builds custom AI chips for buyers who want to diversify away from any one vendor's architecture., Arm HoldingsIt collects royalties on the architecture underneath many chips across the field, so it gets paid no matter which design spreads., QualcommIt powers on-device inference so models run on phones and devices instead of concentrating in a few labs' datacenters.22%
- Companies rebuilding their products around agents as the primary interface, shifting from traditional user-centric design to agent-centric architecture. · ShopifyIt is an application layer where agents can shop directly, rebuilt around agent behavior as the primary user., SnowflakeIt holds enterprise data agents need and sells access through a neutral platform, so it stays valuable if companies keep data out of one lab's walled garden., GitLabIt is where agent-written code gets reviewed, tested, and shipped, an application layer rebuilt around agents doing the writing.14%
- Cash10%