Bitcoin to a Million
david gabeau@david
−14.7%
since Sep 29
The idea
I believe bitcoin is heading toward a million dollars a coin by 2030 as institutions, ETFs, and corporate treasuries keep pulling it into the mainstream. Roughly half the basket sits in spot bitcoin ETFs for clean, steady exposure, while the other half leans into the leveraged side of the trade: miners (some now earning AI data center revenue too), companies holding bitcoin on their books, and exchanges collecting fees along the way. I keep a small cash cushion on hand since sharp drawdowns are part of this asset's nature, and I'm holding for years, not days.
What it owns
- Direct exposure to bitcoin's price without company risk, allowing the take to track the asset itself as it moves toward the target. · iShares Bitcoin TrustThe largest spot bitcoin ETF, making it the most liquid and lowest-cost entry point for direct bitcoin ownership., Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin FundFidelity's spot bitcoin fund offers direct exposure through one of the world's largest asset managers, diversifying the ETF provider risk., Bitwise Bitcoin ETFA low-cost spot bitcoin ETF that minimizes fees over a multi-year holding period, preserving more of the price appreciation., ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETFA spot bitcoin ETF offering direct price exposure with institutional backing, rounding out the core holdings.45%
- Mining operations earn revenue both from producing bitcoin and increasingly from providing power and compute to other industries, creating dual income streams. · MARA HoldingsThe largest U.S. bitcoin miner operates with scale advantages while holding a significant bitcoin treasury, creating leverage to price appreciation., Riot PlatformsA bitcoin miner with access to low-cost power in Texas, improving profitability margins as bitcoin's price rises., IREN LimitedOperates bitcoin mining alongside data center services for artificial intelligence, creating revenue diversification beyond the price cycle., Hut 8 CorpMines bitcoin while retaining a significant portion of production on its balance sheet, combining mining leverage with treasury accumulation., Cipher MiningCombines bitcoin mining with artificial intelligence compute contracts, providing earnings from both the price cycle and the AI buildout., CleanSparkOperates as one of the most efficient pure bitcoin miners, maximizing profit per unit of electricity as price rises., TeraWulfMines bitcoin using renewable energy, keeping electricity costs low while appealing to institutional investors with sustainability requirements.25%
- Trading platforms and financial services collect fees on every transaction, so they profit from volume growth regardless of which participants drive it. · Coinbase GlobalThe largest U.S. crypto exchange captures trading fees and custody revenue from both institutional and retail participants across the market cycle., Galaxy DigitalProvides trading, lending and asset management services to institutional clients entering crypto, positioning it to capture institutional adoption flows., Robinhood MarketsA retail trading platform that captures crypto revenue spikes during periods of high public interest and price momentum.17%
- Companies that hold bitcoin on their balance sheets amplify price moves, creating leveraged exposure to the same asset bet with additional stock volatility. · Strategy IncHolds the largest bitcoin treasury of any publicly traded company and continues acquiring with leverage, creating amplified price exposure.8%
- Cash5%