Starship Proves It
Aloke@aloke
· 1
−10.6%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe Starship reaches reliable reuse within a couple of years, launch costs fall sharply, and Starlink grabs a growing share of global internet traffic. SPCX is the core position, sized to conviction, surrounded by ripple effects: component makers feeding Starlink hardware, smaller space companies riding cheaper launches, telecom partners selling that connectivity, and defense contractors backing heavy lift. It stays concentrated and volatile on purpose, with cash held aside to add around Starship test flights.
What it owns
- Smaller space companies expand their operations and reduce costs when launch to orbit becomes cheap and routine. · Rocket LabRocket Lab's business scales as launch costs fall and expand the total space economy beyond SpaceX's control., Planet LabsPlanet Labs buys launch capacity and reduces its costs as launch prices fall, allowing faster growth in satellite imaging., Firefly AerospaceFirefly builds small rockets and landers for a space economy that grows larger when orbit becomes cheap and routine to reach., Intuitive MachinesIntuitive Machines flies lunar landers on SpaceX rockets, making its missions cheaper and more frequent as launch costs decline., RedwireRedwire builds in-space structures and power systems that only make economic sense when launch costs are low.25%
- Suppliers of chips, lasers, and structures see higher volumes when more satellites and rockets are built to support falling launch costs. · Coherent CorpCoherent supplies the laser optics that connect Starlink satellites to each other, and more satellites mean more links to build., STMicroelectronicsSTMicroelectronics supplies chips for Starlink user terminals, so every new dish sold adds to its revenue., FabrinetFabrinet manufactures precision optics for satellite laser links and wins on volume as more satellites are built., Lumentum HoldingsLumentum makes laser components that Starlink's satellite-to-satellite links depend on, and more traffic drives constellation growth., DucommunDucommun supplies aerostructures to the space and defense supply chain that expands when launch activity and cadence increase.24%
- SpaceX captures the value of reliable Starship reuse and Starlink's growing share of global internet traffic directly. · SpaceXSpaceX captures most of the value directly if Starship reaches reliable reuse and Starlink grows its share of internet traffic.21%
- Military space budgets expand when cheap heavy launch makes larger constellations and more payloads affordable to deploy. · L3Harris TechnologiesL3Harris builds military satellite payloads that the Pentagon buys in larger quantities when cheap heavy lift makes bigger constellations affordable., Kratos DefenseKratos operates in defense space and hypersonics, the military budget category that grows when heavy lift becomes cheap.12%
- Companies that connect Starlink's capacity to end users grow as the constellation carries more of the world's internet traffic. · T-Mobile UST-Mobile's direct-to-phone partnership with Starlink turns satellite capacity into revenue from ordinary phone users.6%
- Cash12%