Everyone Gets an AI Agent
Srbn@sebmaster
−1.3%
since Oct 1
The idea
My belief is that within about five years, most people will have a personal AI agent handling real chunks of daily life, from booking to buying to managing. Rather than guess which agent wins, I own the layers every agent has to use: the chips and cloud running them at 52%, the phones putting them in front of billions of people, the payment rails taking a cut of every purchase they make, and consumer services built to transact with them. I keep 12% in cash to add on dips as adoption evidence rolls in, and I'm building this to hold for years, not trade on headlines.
What it owns
- Every AI agent that runs anywhere needs compute infrastructure, and these companies are positioned to supply or manufacture the chips powering that work at scale. · NVIDIAManufactures the chips most AI agents are trained and run on, capturing value across the entire buildout as long as data-center compute demand keeps growing., Taiwan SemiconductorManufactures nearly every advanced AI chip regardless of designer, from NVIDIA to custom cloud chips, capturing value on the foundry side of the entire agent ecosystem., BroadcomCustom AI chips designed by major cloud providers rely on Broadcom's manufacturing expertise, so it captures value on every generation of optimized cloud AI silicon., Arm HoldingsDesigns the chip architecture in nearly every phone, and on-device AI will require phone makers to adopt higher-performance and higher-royalty versions of those designs., Advanced Micro DevicesServes as the credible second supplier for AI compute across data centers, positioned to capture share of the everyday compute required to run billions of personal agents.28%
- Agents are built and hosted in cloud environments, and these platforms charge for that infrastructure and the software layers agents run on, similar to how operating systems capture value. · MicrosoftEmbeds Copilot agents into familiar workplace tools and hosts agents built by others on Azure, earning from adoption and hosting fees as agents spread through enterprise., AlphabetControls both a leading agent in Gemini and Android, the operating system on most of the world's phones, positioning it to reach billions of users by default., AmazonAWS is the largest cloud hosting startups and companies building agents, and it earns on the infrastructure and compute that every hosted agent requires., OracleBuilding out data center capacity that AI companies rent to train and run models, and has a signed backlog of AI cloud contracts converting into revenue., Meta PlatformsCan reach billions of everyday users through WhatsApp, Instagram, and its glasses devices, and its assistant grows as a consumer product people actually use.24%
- Agents will automate everyday tasks like booking, shopping, and workflow management, and these companies operate the services and platforms agents will integrate with to actually complete those tasks. · ServiceNowHosts the workflows, tickets, and approvals that companies will hand to agents first, and its AI agent products are expanding into larger enterprise contracts., ShopifyProvides the storefronts and commerce infrastructure millions of merchants use, and is building tools that let agents interact with those sellers directly., Booking HoldingsOwns the inventory and supplier relationships travel agents need to book trips, and is positioned to capture travel bookings if agents route through its platform instead of directly to providers., UberOperates the ride and food delivery network that agents will naturally tap into for real-world logistics, positioning itself as the default service layer for agent-driven ordering.14%
- When agents make purchases on behalf of users, payment networks take a transaction fee, and these companies operate the networks most agent commerce will flow through. · VisaOperates the largest payment card network, capturing a transaction fee each time an agent makes a purchase on behalf of its user., MastercardThe second half of the card payments duopoly, already building secure payment tools for agents and positioned to capture transaction fees on agent-driven commerce., PayPalHolds merchant relationships and payment accounts across the open web, and could become an agent checkout solution if it captures real shopping volume from autonomous purchasing.12%
- Personal agents need devices to live on, and these companies control the chips and ecosystems that determine how agents reach billions of people in their pockets. · AppleControls the iPhone ecosystem reaching over a billion people and acts as gatekeeper for what agents can run on its devices, ensuring it captures value from on-device AI adoption., QualcommDesigns the mobile chips that enable agents to run locally on phones rather than depending entirely on cloud calls, pushing phone makers toward more capable and expensive chips.10%
- Cash12%