All-Weather Real Assets
kko@kko
−1.3%
since Oct 5
The idea
I believe a widening US deficit keeps pressuring the dollar over the years ahead, so the core here is hard money like gold and bitcoin plus miners, alongside energy producers and regulated power and nuclear. Around that sit sleeves that don't lean on the dollar thesis: overseas and China exposure, boring cash-generating moat businesses, the physical plumbing behind the AI buildout, and a broad hyperscaler ETF. I keep a small cash buffer and spread bets across many names rather than concentrating in one, meant to be held for years unless the deficit and dollar trend genuinely reverses.
What it owns
- Energy producers, utilities, nuclear plants, and uranium miners hold pricing power when the dollar weakens and electricity demand keeps rising. · Exxon MobilIt produces oil and converts that into cash returns, gaining real value when the dollar slides and oil demand stays solid., Constellation EnergyIt owns the largest US nuclear fleet, gaining as demand for carbon-free power grows and AI datacenters accelerate that trend., Canadian Natural ResourcesIt holds decades of oil reserves in Canada, gaining real value as dollar weakness makes long-lived energy assets worth more each year., Vistra CorpIt sells electricity at market prices, so rising power demand from AI and electrification flows directly to its earnings growth., Duke EnergyIt earns a government-approved return on its rate base regardless of the economy, providing recession resilience while regulators approve its growth., Cameco CorporationIt is the largest Western uranium producer, gaining as nuclear reactor buildout globally outpaces uranium supply for years ahead.20%
- Gold, bitcoin, and mining stocks are direct bets that structural dollar weakness over years keeps real assets repriced upward. · SPDR Gold SharesIt tracks gold prices directly, the purest expression of the bet that dollar weakness keeps repricing real assets upward., BitcoinIt is scarce and government-independent, so structural dollar weakness over years pushes savers toward it as a store of value., Newmont CorporationIt mines gold, so its earnings rise faster than the underlying commodity price when gold trends upward on dollar weakness., Agnico Eagle MinesIt is a well-run gold miner whose cost discipline means profits grow faster than the gold price itself as the dollar weakens.19%
- Unglamorous companies with strong competitive moats and steady cash flow keep earning through a US recession without disruption risk. · Waste ManagementIt collects trash on routes competitors cannot enter, generating steady cash flow through recessions when pricing power stays intact., Kirby CorporationIt operates the largest US inland barge fleet, a physical asset almost no competitor can replicate, generating steady returns through downturns., Mueller Water ProductsIt makes water valves and hydrants that aging US infrastructure must replace regardless of economic conditions, generating steady replacement demand., Costco WholesaleIt operates on membership fees and attracts shoppers who trade down during recessions, keeping renewal rates high through economic cycles.17%
- Photonics, electrical equipment, and grid construction are AI bottlenecks where competitive advantage comes from know-how, not just capital. · Coherent CorpIt makes the optical parts that move data inside AI datacenters, a layer whose advantage comes from proprietary know-how rather than capital alone., Eaton CorporationIt makes the electrical equipment every datacenter and grid upgrade requires, defensible plumbing that benefits from years of electrification spending., Lumentum HoldingsIt makes optical components for datacenters alongside Coherent, so the sleeve doesn't depend on one supplier as AI scales its power demand., Quanta ServicesIt builds and upgrades the electrical grid with crews that cannot be quickly replaced or automated, benefiting from years of AI-driven power demand growth.14%
- Non-US stocks reduce dependence on dollar strength and US market performance, and gain directly if the dollar weakens against other currencies. · Vanguard Total International Stock ETFIt holds all non-US stocks in one fund, and gains dollar value directly when the dollar weakens against other major currencies., KraneShares CSI China Internet ETFIt holds China's leading internet and commerce companies, reducing dependence on US tech and gaining if the dollar weakens against Asian currencies., Alibaba GroupIt dominates Chinese e-commerce and runs a growing cloud and AI business, trading at a discount to comparable US companies.13%
- The take holds the largest US technology companies that gain earnings as AI capability rises and makes their existing services more valuable. · Invesco QQQ TrustIt holds the largest US technology companies that benefit most from rising AI capability and keep compounding earnings over years.12%
- Cash5%