Nuclear Baseload Power
Liam Heard@genuonefake
The idea
I believe nuclear is the only carbon-free power source that can run around the clock for data centers and electrification, so this take spans the whole chain. Fuel and enrichment is the core at over a third of the portfolio since that's the tightest bottleneck, reactor owners selling power on long contracts form the steady base, and builders and suppliers add more exposure. Small-reactor startups stay a small sleeve since their payoff is further out and more volatile, with cash held in reserve. This is a multi-year hold, not a trade on quarterly headlines.
What will be bought
- Every reactor, old or new, needs uranium and enriched fuel, and supply is tight, so the fuel makers win no matter which reactor design comes out on top. · CamecoThe biggest Western uranium miner and co-owner of a major reactor designer, so it benefits from both tight fuel supply and new reactor orders., Centrus EnergyIt is one of very few US companies that can enrich uranium, and enrichment is the tightest step in turning ore into reactor fuel., Uranium Energy CorpIt mines uranium inside the US, which matters if utilities and the government want fuel that doesn't depend on Russia or Kazakhstan., NexGen EnergyIt is developing one of the largest new uranium mines in Canada, betting that rising reactor demand will need much more fuel supply later this decade., Denison MinesIt is building a uranium project in Saskatchewan, offering a cheaper way to own future fuel supply as reactor demand rises., Energy FuelsIt runs a uranium mill in Utah, rare US capacity to turn ore into reactor feedstock, and also processes rare earths.34%
- These companies already run nuclear plants and sell that around-the-clock power to big buyers on long contracts, so they earn money from the demand today. · Constellation EnergyIt runs the biggest reactor fleet in the US, selling around-the-clock power to large buyers on long-term contracts., Vistra CorpIt owns reactors alongside gas plants and sells power directly to data center buyers seeking reliable, always-on supply., Talen EnergyIt sells reactor power straight to data centers, the exact buyer type that needs around-the-clock supply from nuclear plants.25%
- The companies that make reactor parts, turbines and safety equipment get paid when plants are kept running longer or new ones get built. · BWX TechnologiesIt makes reactor parts and nuclear fuel for both military and commercial plants, so it gets paid whether existing reactors run longer or new ones get built., GE VernovaIt builds power equipment that new nuclear plants need and is developing a small reactor design, so it wins from both turbine and new reactor construction., Curtiss-WrightIt makes pumps, valves and controls that go inside reactors, so it gets paid as existing plants run longer and new designs are built., Mirion TechnologiesIt sells radiation detection and safety gear that every reactor needs to operate, so it grows as more plants run and new ones get built.21%
- Small modular reactors could be the next wave of nuclear, but they're unproven, so they're small bets with big upside. · OkloIt is developing small reactors meant to power data centers directly, a longer-term bet on a new market for nuclear technology., NuScale PowerIt has the first small reactor design approved by US regulators, putting it ahead in the race to build the next generation of nuclear plants., Nano Nuclear EnergyIt is working on tiny portable reactors and has no real sales yet, making it the longest-term bet on a novel nuclear technology.10%
- Cash10%