−6.8%
since Oct 6
The idea
I don't think any single AI lab wins the whole stack, so instead of betting on OpenAI versus Anthropic versus Google, I own the layers that get paid no matter who's ahead: neutral infrastructure like Cloudflare and MongoDB, the rails agents need to transact and verify identity like Visa and Okta, diversified chipmakers including AMD and Arm, and application companies rebuilding around agents rather than getting replaced by them. I keep some cash on the side and spread bets across names rather than concentrating in one.
What it owns
- Infrastructure that moves AI traffic or data regardless of which model or lab is involved sits between the application and the compute. · CloudflareIt sits between users and model providers handling AI traffic, so it collects fees on inference regardless of which lab wins., MongoDBIts document database and vector search capabilities serve AI applications regardless of which model they call, and growth depends on developers actually building production systems on it., DatadogIt collects monitoring and observability fees for AI workloads in production, independent of which model provider or chip is underneath., ElasticIts search and vector retrieval tools serve the retrieval step that most AI applications perform before answering, and growth depends on winning those workloads against vector database startups and cloud provider alternatives., TwilioIt owns messaging and voice channels that agents use to reach customers, plus customer data for personalization, and growth depends on AI-driven communication volume flowing through its infrastructure rather than labs' own channels.30%
- When autonomous agents transact with each other or on behalf of people, they need payment rails, identity verification, and settlement rails that don't depend on human bank accounts. · CoinbaseIf autonomous agents pay each other through crypto rails that do not require a bank account, Coinbase infrastructure and stablecoin exposure position it to capture that volume., OktaWhen agents act on behalf of people, identity verification and permission enforcement become necessary products, and growth depends on this category becoming real revenue rather than a concept., CircleIts regulated stablecoin enables instant machine-to-machine payments without bank intermediaries, and growth depends on USDC circulation expanding and regulatory favor toward compliant issuers., VisaIf agents pay with traditional money instead of crypto, transactions flow over card networks, and it is building agent-specific payment credentials to capture that volume.24%
- Companies and countries building their own AI chips instead of depending on a single vendor create opportunities for chip designers, custom silicon makers, and the tools that tie them together. · Advanced Micro DevicesIt supplies data center AI chips as a Nvidia alternative, and revenue growth depends on major buyers committing real money to diversify away from a single vendor., BroadcomIt designs custom AI chips for hyperscalers and builds the networking that ties clusters together, generating revenue when companies choose custom silicon over standard offerings., Arm HoldingsIt licenses chip designs that nearly everyone uses to build custom AI silicon, collecting royalties on chip diversity itself as long as custom AI chips keep proliferating., QualcommIt supplies chips for on-device AI inference on phones and laptops where no lab controls the hardware, and growth depends on on-device AI becoming a real reason for upgrades.22%
- Software platforms built to serve agents as a first-class user need to handle structured data, machine-readable interfaces, and scale that differs from human-focused applications. · ShopifyIt provides the structured product data and machine-readable checkout that shopping agents need to transact with independent merchants instead of being cut out by agent platforms., SnowflakeIt lets enterprises run AI models on their own data instead of shipping data to model labs, and growth depends on AI products driving consumption and enterprises keeping their data as the center of gravity., GitLabIt provides the pipeline around code review, security, and deployment for software, and growth depends on revenue per customer expanding rather than contracting as agents write more code.14%
- Cash10%