Blue Wave vs. Big AI
Grant Hesser@granthesser
+1.5%
since Oct 16
The idea
I'm betting that Democrats retake Congress and keep building toward 2028 on a platform that turns hard against data centers, frontier AI labs and the hyperscalers, while favoring clean energy, affordability and wider health coverage. Half the portfolio presses against the AI trade through leveraged inverse funds tied to the Nasdaq-100 and semiconductors, and the other half owns clean energy builders and utilities, defensive consumer staples, and the Medicaid, ACA and hospital names that would gain most if enhanced subsidies return.
What it owns
- This take bets that technology and semiconductor stocks fall as political pressure on data center spending increases. · Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X SharesIt moves three times the daily decline of semiconductor stocks, the part of the chip supply chain most dependent on data center spending., ProShares UltraPro Short QQQIt moves three times the daily decline of the Nasdaq-100, amplifying gains when major technology companies lose ground.50%
- These companies build and operate solar, wind and grid infrastructure that historically expands under supportive policy. · First SolarIt manufactures solar panels in the United States and benefits from tax credits and domestic manufacturing support., NextrackerIt makes the tracking systems that optimize output from utility-scale solar farms, which deploy faster under supportive policy., Brookfield Renewable PartnersIt owns and operates wind, solar and hydroelectric plants that benefit from clean energy policy and grid development., NextEra EnergyIt is the largest wind and solar developer in the country and gains from clean energy credits and grid expansion policy., Enphase EnergyIt makes the electronics that convert power in rooftop solar systems, which install faster when tax credits are strong and financing is available.15%
- Household essentials tend to hold value when expensive growth stocks fall and consumer spending becomes more cautious. · Coca-ColaIt produces beverages that consumers purchase consistently across different economic conditions and political environments., WalmartIt serves price-conscious families and tends to gain share when consumers shift spending toward affordability., Procter & GambleIt makes household essentials and personal care products that consumers buy regardless of economic conditions or political climate., PepsiCoIt produces snacks and beverages that sell across economic cycles and serves as a stable holding when growth stocks decline., Colgate-PalmoliveIt sells toothpaste, soap and pet food that consumers purchase monthly regardless of economic conditions or market movements.14%
- These insurers gain members and revenue when government healthcare coverage expands and subsidies increase. · Molina HealthcareMost of its revenue comes from Medicaid, making it the most direct play on Medicaid expansion and program protection., CenteneIt is the largest insurer on the ACA exchanges and also operates a substantial Medicaid business, so it gains most from restored subsidies., Oscar HealthIt sells insurance almost entirely on the ACA exchanges, so restored subsidies would benefit it more than any competitor., Elevance HealthIt operates a substantial Medicaid business alongside employer plans, so it gains from Medicaid expansion and ACA subsidy increases.12%
- Hospitals collect more revenue and reduce bad debt when more patients have Medicaid or ACA coverage. · Universal Health ServicesIt operates hospitals and behavioral health centers that depend on Medicaid patients for a significant share of revenue., HCA HealthcareIt operates the largest network of hospitals in the United States and earns more revenue when patients have active insurance coverage., Tenet HealthcareIts hospitals experience immediate revenue pressure when patients lose coverage, so it gains from restored subsidies and Medicaid protection.9%