Own the Ride, Not the Car
Oo Nwoye@oothenigerian
−2.4%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe self-driving fleets will make owning a car optional in dense, permissive cities first, with miles shifting from private cars to robotaxis over the next several years. This basket owns that shift end to end: the fleet operators, the sensors and software behind autonomy, the toll collectors getting paid per mile, and the urban landlords who benefit as parking stops being needed. It leans US and city-centric since adoption looks fastest there, spreads bets across many names rather than one, and keeps a small cash buffer.
What it owns
- Companies running or dispatching the robotaxi fleets that replace owned cars in cities. · Alphabet Inc.Waymo operates paid driverless rides today in dense, permissive cities where the shift is expected to move fastest., Tesla, Inc.The bet that robotaxis scale using cars it already builds by the millions, expanding city by city rather than staying as small pilots., Uber Technologies, Inc.Gets paid on every ride whether the driver is a person or software, as long as it keeps robotaxi partners signing onto its network., Amazon.com, Inc.Owns Zoox, a purpose-built robotaxi for city cores, though it represents a small slice of Amazon and depends on paid ride launches., Lyft, Inc.The second US ride network concentrated in American cities where ownership is expected to fall first, needing robotaxi partnerships to stay relevant.33%
- The chips, sensors, and driving software every fleet needs, paid regardless of which operator wins each city. · NVIDIA CorporationMost self-driving fleets train and run on its chips, creating a standard that persists regardless of which operator wins each city., Mobileye Global Inc.Sells self-driving brains to legacy carmakers, winning if they buy autonomy instead of building it all in-house and joining the fleet shift., Aurora Innovation, Inc.Does nothing but self-driving and licenses the technology outward, so it must keep hitting commercial driverless milestones without other business to rely on., Hesai GroupShips more lidar sensors than anyone, and volume grows with fleet miles unless the industry moves entirely to camera-only systems., Ambarella, Inc.Makes the chips that turn camera video into actionable input for vehicles, winning spots as autonomous miles and cameras per vehicle multiply., ON Semiconductor CorporationSupplies the image sensors that are the eyes of vehicles, and a robotaxi carries far more sensors per unit than a normal car.29%
- Owners of city parking and urban property whose land gains value when it no longer has to store idle cars. · Mobile Infrastructure CorporationOwns urban parking lots that lose value for parking storage as robotaxis cut demand, with upside if land gets redeveloped instead., Vornado Realty TrustOwns dense Manhattan land where parking space converts to higher uses as robotaxis reduce street and garage storage needs., SL Green Realty Corp.New York's largest office landlord profits when urban space gets rethought and parking demand falls in dense city cores., BXP, Inc.Owns premium buildings in the permissive dense cities where adoption is expected first, gaining value as those cores become easier to reach.18%
- Software and connectivity companies that earn on every fleet vehicle and every mile driven. · QUALCOMM IncorporatedGets paid for the chips keeping fleet vehicles connected and computing, a per-vehicle toll on the shift to managed fleets., Samsara Inc.Sells the software that runs and tracks vehicle fleets, earning per vehicle as miles move from owned cars to managed operations.10%
- Cash10%