El Niño Crop Squeeze
l@sasacul123
−0.9%
since Oct 7
The idea
I think this El Niño is squeezing harvests hard enough that crop prices keep climbing, so I want exposure to the crops themselves rather than the companies that grow or process them. The take leans on corn and soybean futures funds for direct conviction, broad agriculture baskets to cover the whole complex including crops without their own listed fund, and a sugar futures fund for the softs side. Futures can swing fast in both directions, so I keep a small cash reserve to add if there's a sharp dip, and I'd rethink the idea if the weather pattern breaks and yields start recovering.
What it owns
- These funds hold many crop futures at once, so they catch the squeeze across the whole complex including rice and wheat, which have no standalone funds. · Invesco DB Agriculture FundIt spreads the bet across the whole crop complex including coffee, cocoa, wheat and other crops that have no standalone US-listed fund.42%
- Sugar, coffee and cocoa are tropical crops hit hardest by El Niño weather, so their prices move most when harvests fail. · Teucrium Sugar FundIt holds sugar futures, which benefit when dry weather in Brazil and Asia cuts cane harvests and sugar prices climb.39%
- Cash19%