Scarce Assets for Fiscal Dominance
−0.2%
since Oct 7
The idea
My core belief is that governments will keep spending faster than they tax, so over years anything that truly can't be printed should hold its ground against the dollar. This basket spreads that view across physical monetary metals, miners and royalty companies, resources like copper and uranium that take a decade to bring new supply online, companies that steadily shrink their share count, and a sliver of irreplaceable coastal and royalty land.
What it owns
- Mining companies and royalty holders own metal still underground, so their value rises faster than the metal itself when prices climb. · Newmont CorporationIt is the world's largest gold miner, offering the most direct ownership of gold still in the ground that gains value if the dollar weakens., Agnico Eagle MinesIt owns gold reserves in stable jurisdictions like Canada, providing scarce assets that cannot be confiscated or heavily taxed by unstable governments., Wheaton Precious MetalsIt buys the rights to future precious metal production at fixed prices, owning scarce metal without the cost inflation that erodes miner profits., Franco-NevadaIt collects royalties on gold production across hundreds of properties, providing a claim on scarce metal with minimal operating risk or cost exposure., Royal GoldIt collects royalties from a diversified set of precious metal mines, spreading the scarcity bet across different properties than other royalty companies.22%
- Uranium and copper face growing demand while new mines require a decade to permit and build, leaving supply unable to respond to price spikes. · Freeport-McMoRanIt owns some of the world's largest copper deposits, including Grasberg, ensuring supply cannot expand quickly when demand grows., Cameco CorporationIt is the largest Western uranium producer, and uranium supply cannot expand because new mines take over a decade to build and permit., Southern CopperIt operates some of the world's lowest-cost copper mines with the largest reserves, profiting when copper is scarce and printing cash when prices spike., NexGen EnergyIt owns one of the largest undeveloped high-grade uranium deposits, a genuinely scarce asset that cannot be quickly replicated or built elsewhere., Teck ResourcesIt is shifting toward copper production growth in a world where new mines face nearly impossible timelines and permitting obstacles to expansion.22%
- Companies that retire their own shares every year make each remaining share scarcer, creating a fixed-supply dynamic within equity ownership. · AutoZoneIt runs one of the largest buyback programs in the auto parts business, shrinking its share count year after year to make remaining shares scarcer., O'Reilly AutomotiveIt returns nearly all cash to shareholders through share buybacks, steadily shrinking the share count and growing each owner's stake without additional investment., AppleIt runs the largest buyback program globally, continuously retiring shares while measured in printed dollars, making each share scarcer over time., Murphy USAIt aggressively retires shares from a fuel and convenience business, executing a more concentrated buyback strategy to shrink share count faster.19%
- Gold, silver and platinum cannot be printed by governments, making them the oldest hedge against fiscal spending that outpaces tax revenue. · SPDR Gold MiniShares TrustIt holds gold, the oldest form of money that governments cannot print, for investors betting on continued fiscal spending outpacing revenue., iShares Silver TrustIt holds physical silver, the second monetary metal, which is scarcer to extract annually and also consumed by industrial demand., abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETFIt holds physical platinum, rarer than gold and sourced from only a handful of mines in limited regions, with new supply taking a decade to develop.16%
- Coastline and subsurface royalty acreage cannot be created, holding value as truly irreplaceable assets. · Texas Pacific Land CorporationIt owns royalty acreage in the Permian Basin that generates cash when others drill, representing truly scarce land that cannot be recreated., The St. Joe CompanyIt owns extensive Florida Gulf Coast beachfront, truly irreplaceable acreage that cannot be recreated and holds value as coastal demand persists.9%
- Cash12%