Humanoid Robot Race
Phillip Vanguard@lowincomelowiq
−7.0%
since Oct 9
The idea
I believe humanoid robots reshape manufacturing and logistics over the next five to ten years, but picking the winning robot maker is a guess, so most of this take owns the picks and shovels every humanoid needs: the chips and software acting as the brain, the motors and gears for joints, and the cameras and sensors for sight. A smaller slice takes long-shot bets on actual robot makers, plus ETFs to capture Chinese and global players I can't easily buy directly. It leans on steady large companies, stays broad since nobody knows the winner yet, and keeps some cash in reserve.
What it owns
- Every humanoid needs AI chips and software to think, regardless of who builds the body. · NVIDIA CorporationIt sells the chips and software that robot makers use to train and run humanoids, so it gets paid regardless of which builder wins., Alphabet Inc.Its DeepMind builds AI models that help robots understand instructions and handle objects, which could become the brain inside many humanoids., QUALCOMM IncorporatedIt makes low-power processors that can run AI inside a robot instead of in a data center, which matters for anything walking on battery power., Ambarella, Inc.It makes chips that turn camera footage into decisions right on the device, which is how a robot sees what's in front of it.23%
- Motors, gears, bearings and magnets go into every robot joint, so these sell to all makers. · Regal Rexnord CorporationIt makes motors, gears and motion parts and is positioning itself as a supplier of the motorized joints inside humanoids., The Timken CompanyIt makes bearings and precision gear drives that let every robot joint turn smoothly, and benefits as factories add robots of any kind., Teradyne, Inc.It owns Universal Robots, a maker of collaborative robot arms, plus a mobile robot business for warehouses already working in factories., MP Materials Corp.It mines rare earths and is building US magnet production, and those magnets go into the motors inside every robot joint., Allient Inc.It makes small precision motors and motion controls, the kind of parts that move robot hands and joints accurately.22%
- Robots need cameras, lidar and sensors to perceive, and these suppliers win as unit counts grow. · TE Connectivity plcIt makes the sensors and connectors that wire robots together and let them sense force and position., Sony Group CorporationIt is the world's largest maker of camera image sensors, the chips that give robots their vision., Ouster, Inc.It makes lidar, laser sensors that map distance in 3D, and sells heavily into robots and industrial machines., Hesai GroupIt is China's leading lidar maker and sells to robot makers, giving this take a supplier on the Chinese side.17%
- Small bets on companies building humanoids themselves, since one could become enormous. · Tesla, Inc.It is building Optimus and owns factories where robots could work first, though current progress lags other makers., XPeng Inc.It switched on automated production for its IRON humanoid robot and aims for mass production soon., Churchill Capital Corp XI (Agility Robotics merger)It is the shell company merging with Agility Robotics, maker of the Digit warehouse humanoid, expected to become the first US-listed humanoid pure play.15%
- Funds that own Chinese, Japanese and European robot companies unavailable as direct US purchases. · KraneShares Global Humanoid and Embodied Intelligence Index ETFThis fund holds humanoid makers unavailable as direct US purchases, including Chinese producers that listed recently., Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETFThis fund holds established robot and automation makers in Japan and Europe that most US investors cannot easily buy individually.14%
- Cash9%