Experience Economy After AGI
ericscott@ericscott
+2.9%
since Oct 6
The idea
I believe AGI pushes the cost of digital work and digital goods toward zero, so spending shifts hard toward what can't be automated away: being somewhere in person, with other people. This take owns the in-person experience economy, travel, live events, resorts, venues, and the real estate under them, alongside the platforms that take a fee on every booking and ticket, while keeping a smaller slice in AI-native entertainment and virtual experiences as their own emerging category. It leans into places with physically fixed supply, since those reprice hardest when demand surges.
What it owns
- Travel and accommodation represent the largest spending category in the experience economy, and hotel rooms and cruise berths take years to add to supply. · Booking HoldingsCollects booking fees on a large share of travel transactions, winning regardless of where people choose to go as long as travel spending grows., AirbnbOperates both the accommodation platform and an experiences marketplace, positioning itself to capture fees on stays and the activities guests book during trips., Royal Caribbean GroupOperates cruise ships with fixed berth capacity that cannot be quickly expanded, creating scarcity as demand for in-person vacation experiences rises., Marriott InternationalCollects franchise fees and loyalty rewards from millions of hotel rooms without owning the properties, capturing growth in travel spending directly.23%
- Concerts, sports, and parks are experiences that cannot be replicated digitally, and the physical venues that host them cannot be quickly expanded. · Live Nation EntertainmentOwns the concert venue and ticket, capturing direct payment when people gather in person to experience live entertainment., TKO Group HoldingsOwns live sports entertainment rights for UFC and WWE, the one category of entertainment that artificial intelligence cannot generate or replicate., Walt DisneyOperates theme parks with fixed physical capacity and attached entertainment franchises, directly capturing spending from people seeking in-person experiences., Sphere EntertainmentOperates a physical venue in Las Vegas that combines fixed location with AI-scale media experiences, requiring both high utilization and expansion to succeed.20%
- Virtual worlds and AI-generated entertainment represent a emerging category where people pay for experiences created or personalized by artificial intelligence. · Meta PlatformsInvests in virtual worlds and AI-generated experiences as standalone categories where people spend time and money in digital spaces with others., RobloxOperates a virtual experience economy where millions of daily users pay to access and participate in digital worlds built by creators., NetflixUses artificial intelligence to personalize entertainment content at lower cost while maintaining direct relationships with subscribers seeking daily media experiences., SpotifyDelivers personalized music and audio content as a daily habit, with artificial intelligence algorithms matching listeners to increasingly engaging experiences.18%
- Booking platforms, payment networks, and ride services collect fees on every transaction regardless of which experiences people choose. · VisaProcesses payments for nearly every booking, ticket, and trip in the experience economy, collecting interchange fees as spending grows., Uber TechnologiesProvides transportation to experiences and accommodations, generating ride fees proportional to the growth in in-person activity and travel.10%
- Land underneath resorts, casinos, theaters, and venues generates stable rental income from the growing experience economy without requiring new development. · VICI PropertiesOwns the land under Las Vegas resort casinos through long-term leases, capturing stable rising rents from the fixed real estate underneath major experience venues., EPR PropertiesCollects rent from tenants operating theaters, ski resorts, and attractions, capturing income from the real estate underlying major experience venues., Vail ResortsSells season passes and lift tickets for ski resorts on mountains that cannot be expanded, creating supply scarcity as demand for outdoor experiences grows.10%
- Education and social connection are experiences people pay for directly, separate from entertainment or travel. · DuolingoOperates a daily learning habit where paid subscribers pay for language education delivered through personalized mobile experiences., Life Time GroupCharges membership fees for fitness and community experiences that require people to physically show up to a location.7%
- Cash12%