Nike Loses, Challengers Win
jay@boogie
+7.9%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe Nike keeps ceding ground in sports apparel, and the winners are the challenger brands taking that share. Since Adidas isn't easily buyable here and Nike isn't part of this basket, I express the idea through On as the anchor position, sized at the maximum single-name weight given its running momentum and expansion into soccer, alongside Deckers, Amer Sports, Birkenstock, Crocs and Wolverine. I keep a meaningful cash buffer to add on the dips these consumer names tend to have, and I'd reconsider if these challengers stopped taking share.
What it owns
- Challenger footwear brands are winning the share that larger incumbents are losing across running, casual, and premium segments. · Deckers Outdoor CorporationHoka, its running brand, is one of the two biggest recipients of share flowing from larger competitors, fitting the take as long as growth outpaces incumbents., Birkenstock HoldingIt is winning premium footwear dollars that once defaulted to larger brands, working as long as shoppers keep paying full price instead of drifting back., Crocs Inc.It is taking casual everyday footwear share that larger brands used to own, holding up while growth continues and it keeps ground in that segment., Wolverine World WideSaucony, its running brand, is mounting a comeback in the segment where larger players are weakest, working if growth keeps accelerating.46%
- On is capturing running share from established incumbents and expanding into new sports, making it the sharpest expression of this take. · On Holding AGIt is taking running share from incumbents and expanding into soccer, holding up as long as growth stays fast and the sport expansion advances.25%
- Premium outdoor brands are drawing athletic and footwear spending away from larger players as consumers trade up. · Amer Sports Inc.Salomon and Arc'teryx are premium outdoor brands pulling athletic and footwear spending away from larger players as shoppers trade up.15%
- Cash14%