Fourth Turning Barbell
Stelios Gerogiannakis@sgerogia
−2.6%
since Oct 4
The idea
I think we are in a fourth turning, with fiat debasement and US instability on one side and real disruption on the other. So I built a barbell: gold, bitcoin, miners, and commodity-exporting economies on one side, and the picks and shovels of the new order on the other, power generation and grid equipment, defense and reindustrialization, and new financial rails, deliberately skipping richly priced pure AI names. It's spread across five themes with no single bet dominating, a 10% cash reserve to buy drawdowns, and meant to be held for years rather than traded around headlines.
What it owns
- Gold and bitcoin are fixed-supply assets that hold value when fiat currency is debased, especially through periods of political and economic instability. · BitcoinIt is a fixed-supply asset outside the traditional financial system that benefits from adoption as a debasement hedge., SPDR Gold SharesIt tracks gold prices and serves as the core hard-money hedge against currency debasement and fiscal deficits., Agnico Eagle MinesIt is a disciplined gold miner whose profits expand faster than gold prices when precious metals rise., Wheaton Precious MetalsIt collects royalties from other miners' gold and silver production without operating mines, reducing operational risk while capturing precious metals upside., iShares Silver TrustIt tracks silver prices, which benefit from both monetary debasement and demand for electrification and grid buildout.31%
- Data center compute requires reliable power generation and distribution, so owning the energy and grid infrastructure captures the buildout at more stable valuations than pure technology plays. · Constellation EnergyIt owns nuclear generation capacity that sells power to data centers at premium rates, insulating it from AI market fluctuations., GE VernovaIt manufactures turbines and grid equipment that every new megawatt of power generation requires, creating a bottleneck independent of which specific technology wins., Eaton CorporationIt manufactures electrical distribution equipment between generation and end users, capturing the compute-requires-energy bottleneck., CamecoIt supplies uranium fuel from a politically stable jurisdiction to new and restarted nuclear reactors meeting rising power demand., EQT CorporationIt is the largest US natural gas producer whose fuel gets built out fastest when electricity demand exceeds expectations.18%
- During a crisis period, governments expand defense spending and rebuild domestic industrial capacity, creating demand for contractors and specialized equipment. · RTX CorporationIt is a prime defense contractor with a deep backlog of missiles and defense systems purchased by the state during a crisis period., Rockwell AutomationIt supplies the automation and control systems that make domestic factory reshoring economically viable., Kratos Defense & SecurityIt builds low-cost drones and autonomous systems that modern defense needs, capturing growth on the reindustrialization edge., EMCOR GroupIt performs the electrical and mechanical construction for data centers, factories, and grid projects, earning fees on the buildout itself.16%
- If traditional debt systems experience stress, alternative financial infrastructure built on blockchain and stablecoins gains users and regulatory legitimacy. · EthereumIt serves as the settlement layer for stablecoins and tokenized assets in the alternative financial infrastructure., Coinbase GlobalIt operates as the regulated bridge between traditional finance and blockchain-based rails, earning fees on trading and stablecoin activity., Circle Internet GroupIt issues USDC stablecoins and earns interest on reserves backing them, positioning it at the center of alternative financial infrastructure.12%
- Countries that export commodities benefit when prices stay elevated and operate outside the direct reach of US political and fiscal risks. · iShares MSCI Brazil ETFIt provides exposure to Brazil, which exports the energy, metals, and food that elevated commodity prices bid higher., Vale S.A.It is a major exporter of iron ore and base metals that benefits directly from elevated commodity prices supporting infrastructure buildout., Southern CopperIt exports copper from an exporting region and the metal is essential to power infrastructure that cannot be built without it.12%
- Cash10%