Where Measurable Ad Money Goes
Hussain@hussain
The idea
I think ad budgets are moving away from traditional media and big agencies toward channels that can prove they drove a sale. So this holds the places that money is clearly flowing: Meta and YouTube as roughly a quarter each, streaming TV spread across the platforms and ad tech selling those ads, and retail media led by Amazon and Walmart alongside delivery apps. A small cash buffer rounds it out, and I kept out shrinking ad tech names since this is about following where spend is going, not betting on a turnaround.
What will be bought
- Marketing mix models consistently rank this channel ahead of others for measured return on ad spending. · Meta PlatformsIt wins in marketing mix models as advertisers prove ROI through measured results, and its ad revenue grows faster than overall ad spending.23%
- This video platform shows up in attribution models as a stronger channel than last-click attribution suggests, and measurable results drive advertiser spending. · AlphabetYouTube sells video ads on screens and phones with measurable attribution, and its growth depends on ad revenue expansion and share of streaming viewing.23%
- Ads tied directly to purchase behavior create the clearest attribution trail, making this the fastest-growing channel as budgets shift toward measurable spending. · AmazonIt runs the largest retail media network selling ads at the moment of purchase, plus advertising in Prime Video, and is projected to capture a dominant share of new retail ad spending., WalmartAdvertising revenue remains small relative to total sales, but has grown into a significant profit driver, and continued acceleration in ad growth depends on maintaining this outsized contribution to earnings., DoorDashIt sells ads to merchants tied directly to orders within its app and is expanding into retail and loyalty tools, with growth depending on advertising becoming a larger share of revenue., Maplebear (Instacart)It sells ads to grocery brands at the moment shoppers fill their carts, creating the most direct attribution possible, and the take depends on ad revenue growth outpacing order volume growth.23%
- Traditional TV ad budgets are migrating to streaming platforms where ads can be measured, creating growth for both content owners and the ad-tech infrastructure behind them. · NetflixIts ad-supported tier opens a large pool of premium streaming inventory to advertisers, and the take depends on sustained growth in ad tier adoption and ad revenue., Fox CorporationIt owns Tubi, a free ad-supported streaming service, and is positioned to acquire Roku, one of the largest TV-screen ad platforms, transforming it into a streaming ad business., The Walt Disney CompanyIt sells streaming ads across Hulu and Disney+ as budgets shift from traditional cable to connected TV, and the take works if streaming ad sales grow faster than cable ad sales decline., MagniteIt operates the backend platform streaming services use to sell advertising inventory, and its growth depends on streamers continuing to use its system rather than building their own ad sales tools., PubMaticIt helps publishers and streamers sell advertising space with a growing streaming TV revenue segment, and the take requires streaming ad growth to accelerate faster than traditional web advertising shrinks.23%
- Cash8%