Speculation Is the New Entertainment
Nick@nickgrossman
−4.9%
since Sep 29
Practiced to −6.9% over 32 days before going real.
Practice chapter: simulated results; no money was invested.
The idea
I believe speculation itself is turning into mainstream entertainment, with sports betting, memecoins, prediction markets, and short-dated options all blending into one habit. So I own the platforms that take a cut of every wager, sportsbooks, retail brokers, crypto exchanges, plus the data and clearing infrastructure underneath them. The basket stays concentrated in the names with the most direct claim on that betting dollar, with a cash slice set aside to add on the sharp drops this kind of group tends to produce.
What it owns
- Legal sports betting platforms take a cut of every wager placed, growing as more states legalize and casual fans bet from mobile apps. · DraftKingsTakes a direct cut of every sports wager placed, growing as more states legalize and casual fans migrate betting to mobile., Flutter EntertainmentOwns FanDuel, the largest US sportsbook, plus profitable betting businesses across Europe and Australia funding competition at home., Rush Street InteractiveEarns most revenue from online casino, the stickiest and highest-margin form of app-based gambling, growing as new states legalize., PENN EntertainmentOperates ESPN Bet, which could convert ESPN's massive audience into bettors if market share grows each quarter., Churchill DownsOwns the Kentucky Derby and TwinSpires wagering franchise, providing a century-old asset that benefits from growing betting and racing volume.25%
- Apps that let anyone trade stocks, options, and crypto from their phone have turned speculation into daily entertainment, and these platforms earn money on every trade. · Robinhood MarketsOffers options, crypto, event contracts, and sports betting all in one app designed to feel like a game, capturing the full spectrum of speculation-as-entertainment., Interactive BrokersLaunched its own event-contract exchange and earns rising commissions as retail trading volumes grow worldwide., Futu HoldingsLeads the market for retail trading apps among Chinese and Southeast Asian traders, growing accounts and assets as trading-as-entertainment spreads globally., WebullAttracts first-time options traders with a social and accessible platform, making it a direct claim on the newest cohort of retail speculators., eToro GroupTurned trading into a social feed where users copy each other's bets, embodying speculation-as-entertainment in its purest form.24%
- Major derivatives exchanges collect fees on every contract traded or cleared, whether it expires worthless or not, giving them a house edge on speculation. · CME GroupClears more derivatives than any competitor and is moving into regulated event contracts, collecting a fee per contract regardless of outcome., Cboe Global MarketsOwns the zero-day options market where retail traders place same-day expiration bets like lottery tickets, collecting a fee on every contract., Intercontinental ExchangeOwns the NYSE and futures exchanges, collecting tolls on trading activity as overall speculation grows across markets., NasdaqEarns from listings, trading fees, and market data as speculative activity and retail engagement rise.18%
- Cryptocurrency exchanges and platforms earn trading fees and transaction revenue regardless of whether prices rise or fall, as retail speculation drives volume. · Coinbase GlobalCollects trading fees on every cryptocurrency transaction and is expanding into derivatives and prediction-market products., Galaxy DigitalOperates crypto trading, asset management, and mining infrastructure, profiting as institutional money joins the retail speculation wave., Circle Internet GroupIssues USDC stablecoin, earning interest on reserves backing every dollar that flows into crypto trading and betting platforms., BullishOperates a crypto exchange taking fees on trading volume and owns CoinDesk, positioned as an earlier-stage play on crypto speculation.16%
- Live sports data and odds feeds are essential infrastructure for betting platforms, so data suppliers get paid whenever anyone places a bet. · Genius SportsSupplies official live sports data feeds that sportsbooks need to price bets, earning revenue tied to betting volume regardless of which book wins., SportradarProvides odds and integrity services to betting platforms worldwide, profiting from the data layer as global betting volume grows.8%
- Cash10%