Post-Quantum Transition
Nir Zicherman@nir
−5.5%
since Sep 29
The idea
I believe the shift to post-quantum encryption happens faster than most expect, driven by finalized standards and federal deadlines, and the money flows to whoever handles the migration, not just whoever builds the eventual machine. The core holding is security vendors and government contractors already capturing that re-encryption spend, backed by big-cap quantum labs for steadier exposure, with pure-play quantum machine makers as a smaller, higher-volatility sleeve since their payoff timing is the least certain part of the bet.
What it owns
- Security vendors get paid now as companies swap old encryption for post-quantum standards, whether or not a quantum breakthrough arrives. · Palo Alto NetworksIt sells the platform that enterprises buy when they overhaul security, and a forced move to post-quantum encryption is exactly that kind of refresh., CrowdStrikeIt serves as the platform companies already use to secure their infrastructure, positioning it to capture incremental spending from re-encryption and security consolidation trends., CloudflareIt already runs post-quantum encryption on much of the internet traffic it carries, collecting the transition today rather than waiting for it., ZscalerIt sits in the middle of encrypted traffic flows, so every connection through it must be upgraded to quantum-safe encryption., Check Point SoftwareIt is the profitable, established security vendor positioned to collect crypto-refresh spending alongside faster-moving competitors in the sector., FortinetOld firewalls cannot handle new post-quantum algorithms well, so faster transition timelines force a hardware replacement cycle., Arqit QuantumIt sells quantum-safe encryption and little else, making it the most direct bet that the transition comes faster than expected.34%
- Federal mandates require agencies to re-encrypt on a deadline, and these contractors and equipment makers provide that infrastructure work. · Booz Allen HamiltonFederal deadlines require agencies to inventory and replace their cryptography, and it is a consultant they hire to manage that process., LeidosIt runs and modernizes defense IT systems, which all must be re-encrypted under federal mandates for crypto-modernization., Cisco SystemsMuch government and enterprise network gear cannot handle post-quantum encryption and must be replaced, and it sells the new equipment., CACI InternationalIt does classified and defense IT work where re-encryption mandates are strongest, since adversaries are assumed to be storing encrypted data now., Keysight TechnologiesIt sells test and measurement equipment that both quantum labs and network vendors need to build and verify systems, collecting from the entire supply chain.24%
- The tech giants run the most advanced quantum programs and their size provides stability while the transition plays out. · AlphabetIts quantum breakthroughs accelerate re-encryption timelines while its ad and cloud business funds the research, providing steady exposure to quantum progress., IBMIt builds quantum machines and consults on cryptography swaps, working as long as its quantum roadmap delivers and clients hire it for migration., MicrosoftIt rents quantum computing through Azure and will push post-quantum crypto to more organizations than almost anyone through its software footprint.20%
- The pure-play machine builders are the direct bet on quantum progress itself, smaller positions because they swing hard and most lose money today. · IonQIt is the best-funded pure quantum machine maker, and visible progress from it is what drives urgency in the re-encryption timeline., Rigetti ComputingIt builds superconducting quantum chips and is pre-profit, making it a small high-volatility bet on quantum machine progress., D-Wave QuantumIt is selling quantum machines and cloud access today, making it the closest pure-play quantum name to commercial revenue.12%
- Other · LAES2%
- Cash8%