New War, Old Guard Out
Andrew Chang@achang
−7.9%
since Oct 3
The idea
I think oligarchs and power politics are pushing the world toward real conflict fast, within a year or two, and the money will follow the new shape of war rather than old steel. So this skips the traditional tank and jet makers entirely and instead concentrates in pure-play drone and autonomy companies and cyberwarfare software, backed by a layer of sensor and secure-electronics suppliers the market hasn't repriced yet, plus a small slice of satellite and secure comms. I'm keeping cash in reserve to add if fear spikes, and I'd rethink this if tensions actually cool instead of escalating.
What it owns
- When tensions escalate toward conflict, militaries shift spending fast away from traditional platforms toward cheap, expendable autonomous systems that can be fielded in volume. · AeroVironmentIt manufactures small loitering munitions and tactical drones that militaries prioritize when budgets shift toward cheap, rapidly deployable systems over legacy platforms., Kratos Defense & SecurityIt builds low-cost unmanned aircraft designed for autonomous operations, positioned to gain as defense spending tilts from manned jets toward expendable drone systems., Palantir TechnologiesIt provides the software layer that integrates drone operations, sensor data and targeting across distributed defense systems, capturing spending on the command-and-control side of autonomous warfare., Ondas HoldingsIt supplies both offensive drone systems and counter-drone defenses, capturing revenue from both sides as drone proliferation and defensive spending against drone threats both increase., Red Cat HoldingsIt manufactures small military drones designed for volume production and rapid deployment, positioned to win significant orders if escalating conflicts drive urgent drone procurement.31%
- State-sponsored hacking campaigns intensify before physical conflict breaks out, and each escalation drives government and enterprise cybersecurity spending higher. · CrowdStrikeIt responds to nation-state cyberattacks on government and enterprise networks, so escalating state-level hacking campaigns directly expand its addressable market., Palo Alto NetworksIt supplies broad-based network security infrastructure that organizations deploy in response to state-sponsored threat campaigns and escalating cyberwarfare risks., CACI InternationalIt performs classified signals intelligence and offensive cyber operations for the US government, capturing spending that flows to cyber and intelligence capabilities during rising tensions., SentinelOneIt provides AI-driven endpoint security that organizations deploy rapidly in response to state-backed attack campaigns, gaining share during acceleration in cybersecurity upgrades., Booz Allen HamiltonIt executes cyber operations and digital transformation work across US defense and intelligence agencies, capturing contract growth as government cyberwarfare spending accelerates.27%
- Modern drones, sensors and weapon systems depend on specialized imaging, processing and secure electronics, and these suppliers remain underpriced relative to their role in next-generation defense. · Teledyne TechnologiesIt makes imaging sensors and precision electronics embedded in drones and surveillance systems, and the market still prices it primarily as an industrial company despite growing defense revenue., Leonardo DRSIt supplies sensors and counter-drone defense systems that militaries deploy regardless of which drone platforms they choose, capturing multiple revenue streams in an escalating drone conflict., Elbit SystemsIt is structured around drones, sensors and precision electronics rather than traditional tank and fighter platforms, making it naturally aligned with spending shifts toward autonomous systems., Mercury SystemsIt manufactures secure processing components and rugged electronics for radars, drones and warfare systems, capturing the rising per-unit electronics content as spending tilts toward sensing and autonomy.20%
- Satellite imagery and secure communications become critical infrastructure in modern state conflicts, and governments contract for these capabilities before shooting starts. · Iridium CommunicationsIt operates secure satellite communications networks that militaries depend on when ground infrastructure becomes vulnerable, seeing demand spike as conflict risks rise., Planet LabsIt provides daily global satellite imagery that defense and intelligence agencies contract for to monitor adversary movements and escalating tensions across regions., BlackSky TechnologyIt delivers near real-time satellite imagery to defense customers for tactical and strategic awareness, seeing demand spike as conflict risks drive governments to contract for continuous surveillance.10%
- Cash12%