Quantum Arrives Early
David Greenstein@davidgreenstein
−13.1%
since Oct 9
The idea
I think quantum computing could turn commercially useful sooner than most expect, with AI speeding up the progress, unlocking new ways to crack hard problems in chemistry and materials. Since nobody knows which hardware approach or timeline wins, I spread across trapped ions, superconducting, photonic and annealing builders, split roughly evenly between pure-play quantum companies and larger firms plus the suppliers every approach needs.
What it owns
- Superconducting, annealing and light-based quantum machines are the other main hardware approaches, plus software that runs across all of them. · D-Wave QuantumIt uses annealing, a type of quantum machine designed for scheduling and routing problems, and already sells to paying businesses., Rigetti ComputingIt makes superconducting quantum chips from the same family that IBM and Google use, offering pure-play exposure to that hardware approach., Xanadu Quantum TechnologiesIt builds quantum computers from light using the photonic approach and recently moved its chips into high-volume manufacturing., Horizon Quantum ComputingIt makes software that lets programmers write code for quantum machines without requiring deep hardware expertise.25%
- These companies fund major quantum programs and already sell quantum access to paying customers, backed by large core businesses. · IBMIt has detailed public plans for reaching error-corrected quantum computers and already rents its machines to companies and labs., AlphabetIts Quantum AI group is a leading lab on error correction, the fundamental problem that must be solved before quantum becomes useful at scale., MicrosoftIt is backing topological qubits, a riskier design that could offer far greater stability if successful, and runs Azure Quantum for customer access., AmazonIts Braket service lets businesses rent quantum machines from different builders, earning from quantum use regardless of whose hardware succeeds, and it is developing its own Ocelot chip.25%
- Trapped-ion and neutral-atom machines are two of the leading quantum designs, so owning both covers a significant part of the hardware race. · IonQIt builds trapped-ion quantum computers and sells time on them through major cloud platforms, making it a direct bet on quantum becoming useful sooner than widely expected., InfleqtionIt builds quantum machines from neutral atoms held by lasers, covering one of the main approaches since the winning hardware design remains uncertain.17%
- Every quantum machine needs lasers, control electronics and extreme cooling, so these suppliers benefit regardless of which quantum design succeeds. · Keysight TechnologiesIt sells the electronics that control and test qubits, equipment that every quantum builder needs regardless of their hardware approach., CoherentIt makes the precision lasers that trapped-ion and neutral-atom machines use to hold and steer their qubits., LindeIt is a major helium supplier, and superconducting quantum chips require helium-cooled refrigerators to operate near absolute zero., MKS InstrumentsIt supplies optics, photonics and vacuum equipment that quantum labs use to build and run their machines.15%
- This company builds the software and hardware that link AI supercomputers to quantum chips, which is how AI accelerates quantum development. · NVIDIAIts GPUs and software link regular AI computing to quantum processors and are used to simulate and correct quantum chips.8%
- Cash10%