The Desperation Speculation Economy
dooks@dooks
−3.8%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe stagnant wages and high prices are pushing more people toward speculation as their best shot at getting ahead, and that money is landing in prediction markets and trading apps rather than casinos. Since the volume leaders there are private, I own the public perimeter instead: retail trading apps, exchanges that bought their way into event contracts, crypto settlement rails, and the market plumbing underneath. I spread it across all four layers since it is unclear which venue wins, and I keep 10% in cash to add when these names take their inevitable sharp drops.
What it owns
- Apps where ordinary people place bets on stocks, options, crypto, and prediction markets have become primary vehicles for those seeking outsized returns. · Robinhood MarketsThe largest public retail trading platform now sells event contracts alongside traditional products, positioning itself at the center of the shift toward speculation as an investment strategy., eToro GroupIt monetizes the same speculative appetite as larger platforms but operates primarily outside the US, testing whether the trend is a global phenomenon., Futu HoldingsIt is the leading retail trading app in Asia, providing a test of whether the shift toward speculation as an income strategy extends beyond developed Western markets., WebullIt hosts a large population of retail traders focused on options and short-term bets, making it a pure play on the volume of desperate speculation., UP Fintech HoldingIt serves Asian retail traders seeking high-risk, high-reward opportunities, offering geographic diversification to the bet that speculation is becoming a primary investment vehicle.30%
- Established exchanges are moving into prediction markets and event contracts, signaling confidence that wagering on outcomes will become a mainstream financial product. · Intercontinental ExchangeIt holds an ownership stake in Polymarket, one of the two largest prediction market platforms, giving public investors exposure to the fastest-growing on-chain wagering venue., CME GroupThe establishment exchange is building event contract volumes as a new product line, testing whether prediction markets can scale beyond crypto-native platforms., Interactive BrokersIt owns ForecastEx, a regulated prediction market venue, while also profiting from every trade executed through its brokerage, creating dual exposure to the trend., Cboe Global MarketsIt operates short-dated options contracts, including same-day expiry products, which function as lottery tickets for retail traders seeking outsized payoffs.28%
- Prediction market bets and on-chain wagering settle in stablecoins and crypto, generating fees for platforms that process every transaction. · Coinbase GlobalMost money flowing into prediction markets and crypto speculation passes through its platform first, making it the primary on-ramp for speculative capital seeking alternative returns., Circle Internet GroupIt issues USDC, the stablecoin that settles most prediction market bets, so growth in wagering volume directly increases the demand for its currency., Galaxy DigitalIt earns from market-making and lending activity in crypto, so it benefits from any surge in speculative trading and leverage-seeking behavior in digital assets.19%
- Infrastructure providers and market makers earn from retail order flow regardless of which trading app or venue ultimately wins the most users. · Virtu FinancialIt profits by trading against retail orders from retail apps, so volume and activity on platforms like Robinhood and Webull flow directly to its bottom line., Nasdaq IncIt provides the technology infrastructure that exchanges and trading venues run on, earning fees from the expansion of speculation-focused trading platforms.13%
- Cash10%