Nuclear Baseload Decade
allan@allan
−4.6%
since Oct 1
The idea
I believe wind and solar can't cover round-the-clock power demand alone, and nuclear is the only credible way to meet baseload needs as data centers and electrification push electricity use higher for a decade. So I built exposure across the whole chain: reactor fleet owners with long power deals, the builders and component makers plants depend on, uranium miners facing a supply squeeze, and enrichment capacity, which is the quietest bottleneck since Western supply is so thin.
What it owns
- Utilities that own operating nuclear plants earn more as data centers compete for reliable round-the-clock power and bid up long-term contract prices. · Constellation EnergyIt owns the largest US reactor fleet, so it captures higher power prices as data centers sign long-term contracts for baseload nuclear electricity., VistraIt pairs its nuclear reactors with direct power contracts to data centers, capturing both the generation and the premium pricing from large compute buyers., Talen EnergyIt sells nuclear power directly to large data center operators, capturing the premium for round-the-clock baseload electricity., Public Service Enterprise GroupIt is a regulated utility with nuclear assets that earns steady returns from operating plants and benefits as baseload power remains valuable.26%
- Mines cannot expand fast enough to meet reactor demand growth, so producers that control large reserves or low-cost operations capture the fuel shortage. · CamecoIt is the largest Western uranium producer and benefits when reactor demand grows faster than mines can expand capacity., NexGen EnergyIt controls one of the world's largest undeveloped uranium deposits and benefits if growing reactor demand requires new mines to open., Uranium Energy CorpIt is restarting US uranium production as the Western world moves away from Russian supply and seeks domestic fuel sources., Energy FuelsIt operates the only conventional uranium mill in the US and benefits as policy and pricing support domestic fuel chain rebuilding., Denison MinesIt is developing one of the world's lowest-cost uranium mines and wins if the fuel shortage persists through the decade and demand stays strong.23%
- Nuclear plants require specialized turbines, reactor parts, and instrumentation regardless of whether new builds are large or small reactors. · GE VernovaIt manufactures turbines and components that every new nuclear plant must purchase and develops small reactor designs for the full spectrum of construction., BWX TechnologiesIt manufactures reactor components and critical parts for both existing plants and new builds across small and large reactor types., Curtiss-WrightIt supplies components for operating plants and new construction, so it earns from both keeping the current fleet running and building new capacity., Mirion TechnologiesIt sells radiation measurement instruments and safety equipment that every operating reactor and new plant must install and maintain.23%
- The Western ban on Russian enriched uranium removed most of the supply, and the US has almost no domestic enrichment capacity, making this step the scarcest link in the fuel chain. · Centrus EnergyIt is the only US company enriching uranium domestically, and the Russian enrichment ban makes this scarce capacity critical to the Western fuel chain., ASP IsotopesIt is developing new enrichment technology to help fill the capacity gap created by the Russian ban, though commercial viability remains unproven.9%
- Small modular reactors represent significant upside potential in nuclear baseload generation, though most early-stage developers face survival challenges before achieving commercial viability. · OkloIt develops fast reactors designed to provide baseload power, with success dependent on licensing approvals and achieving its first operational plant., NuScale PowerIt holds the only small modular reactor design approved by US regulators, a competitive advantage if SMRs become part of the baseload solution., Nano Nuclear EnergyIt develops microreactors and faces years of technical and regulatory work before reaching revenue, so payoff depends on reaching licensing and securing customers.9%
- Cash10%