The Acceleration
Jonny Mack
@nonlinear
−3.0%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe progress compounds and speeds up over the next decade: living standards rise, lifespans extend, and we keep climbing the energy and technology ladder. Instead of picking one frontier, I own the inputs to acceleration across five layers: thinking machines, the energy that powers them, robots that do physical work, tools that read and edit biology, and companies opening space. Large profitable compounders anchor the take and fund smaller stakes in the punchier bets where progress could go nonlinear, with a modest cash reserve kept aside to add on weakness.
What it owns
- Compute is the foundational input to every other acceleration: the companies that build, run, and optimize the chips and infrastructure for artificial intelligence compound fastest. · NVIDIAIt sells the chips that almost every company uses to train and run artificial intelligence models, so it captures a toll on the entire acceleration as long as compute demand keeps growing., Taiwan SemiconductorNearly every advanced artificial intelligence chip is physically manufactured by its foundries, so as intelligence gets cheaper and more abundant, the one network that can build at the leading edge captures a toll on the whole acceleration., MicrosoftIt turns artificial intelligence into products for businesses and rents out the computing power behind it, funded by some of the most reliable profits in technology, making it a large anchor compounder., AlphabetIt builds the full stack of machine intelligence: its own chips, models, and consumer products, plus exploratory bets in autonomous vehicles and quantum computing., ASMLIt is the only company on Earth that makes the machines that print the most advanced chips, so as faster progress means more chips, its tools run through no real substitute., BroadcomThe biggest artificial intelligence companies increasingly design their own chips instead of buying off the shelf, and it is who they hire to design and build them, capturing spending as hyperscalers customize silicon.35%
- Rising living standards come from machines doing physical work, not from imagining it: the companies replacing human motion with robot motion deliver the compounding gains. · TeslaIt develops self-driving cars and humanoid robots that perform physical work, making it a direct bet on whether machines can automate the physical world., Intuitive SurgicalIt already performs millions of surgeries per year with robotic systems, proving that machines doing skilled human work is not hypothetical but delivering less death and suffering right now., AmazonIt runs the most automated logistics network on the planet and keeps replacing human motion with robot motion, funded by cloud profits, so automation keeps compounding while its core business grows., Rockwell AutomationIf work gets automated everywhere, someone sells the controllers and software that automate ordinary factories, and it is the American standard that manufacturers rely on to automate rather than hire.18%
- Longer, healthier lives emerge from companies that read, edit, and treat biology at scale: cheaper sequencing and direct genetic intervention are compounding curves applied to human suffering. · Eli LillyIts obesity and diabetes drugs represent the largest pharmaceutical advance toward longer, healthier lives in decades, with additional work on Alzheimer's disease., Thermo Fisher ScientificWhoever discovers the next drug buys their instruments and lab supplies from it, making it a bet on the volume of biology research going up without having to pick the individual winners., RegeneronIt sequences huge populations and turns the genetics directly into drugs, applying acceleration through science and speed to medicine and biology rather than picking individual disease winners., IlluminaReading deoxyribonucleic acid keeps getting cheaper, and it makes most of the machines that do it, so cheap sequencing as the input to everything in longevity and biology depends on its continued leadership., CRISPR TherapeuticsIt has an approved gene-editing cure on the market, and each new therapy advancement through trials expands the addressable opportunity.18%
- Harnessing more energy is how civilizations climb in capability, and artificial intelligence is forcing a grid buildout now: the companies building generation, transmission, and delivery infrastructure capture the toll. · Constellation EnergyIt runs the largest nuclear fleet in the country, clean power that produces electricity around the clock, so as data centers and electrification push demand for firm power up, its assets become more valuable., GE VernovaIt builds the turbines, transformers, and grid equipment that rising living standards run on, so as electricity demand keeps growing faster than the grid can currently handle, its gear becomes essential., VertivEvery artificial intelligence data center needs power delivery and cooling infrastructure, making it the essential link between machine intelligence buildout and energy infrastructure expansion., First SolarSolar is the cheapest new electricity in most of the world and keeps getting cheaper, exactly the compounding cost curve the take is built on, and it is the largest American manufacturer.17%
- Small, asymmetric stakes in the companies building access to orbit and treating space as territory for infrastructure and commerce. · Rocket LabCheap, frequent launch access is how space becomes territory for infrastructure and commerce, and it is the second-busiest American launcher with a larger rocket on the way., AST SpaceMobileIt is building satellites that connect ordinary phones from orbit, creating infrastructure for a civilization that treats space as territory, with carrier deals in progress toward real service.7%
- Cash5%